DB:4FU

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates quick service, coffee shop, casual dining, and family dining restaurants.

Rewards

Trading at 1.1% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 36.02% per year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Unstable dividend track record

Profit margins (1.3%) are lower than last year (3%)



Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential average dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Alsea. de's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: 4FU has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.8%

4FU

5.4%

DE Hospitality

1.7%

DE Market


1 Year Return

-5.4%

4FU

11.0%

DE Hospitality

15.0%

DE Market

Return vs Industry: 4FU underperformed the German Hospitality industry which returned 11% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 4FU underperformed the German Market which returned 15% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

4FUIndustryMarket
7 Day1.8%5.4%1.7%
30 Day-5.8%3.5%0.8%
90 Day-8.1%-9.0%3.7%
1 Year-5.4%-5.4%15.8%11.0%18.5%15.0%
3 Year-11.5%-13.4%-4.5%-17.6%17.1%6.9%
5 Year-3.5%-7.7%-7.0%-26.6%24.3%7.3%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Alsea. de's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is Alsea. de undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

1.1%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: 4FU (€2.26) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€2.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4FU is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: 4FU is poor value based on its PE Ratio (44.8x) compared to the Hospitality industry average (23.8x).

PE vs Market: 4FU is poor value based on its PE Ratio (44.8x) compared to the German market (21.1x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 4FU is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.2x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: 4FU is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (4.3x) compared to the DE Hospitality industry average (2.3x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Alsea. de forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 14 analysts?

36.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 4FU's forecast earnings growth (36% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: 4FU's earnings (36% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the German market (13.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 4FU's revenue (8.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 4FU's revenue (8.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 4FU's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.8%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Alsea. de performed over the past 5 years?

5.2%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 4FU has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 4FU's current net profit margins (1.3%) are lower than last year (3%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 4FU's earnings have grown by 5.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 4FU's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: 4FU had negative earnings growth (-46.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Hospitality industry average (-36.8%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: 4FU's Return on Equity (8.3%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Alsea. de's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 4FU's short term assets (MX$6.5B) do not cover its short term liabilities (MX$16.4B).

Long Term Liabilities: 4FU's short term assets (MX$6.5B) do not cover its long term liabilities (MX$48.9B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 4FU's debt to equity ratio (246.4%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: 4FU's debt to equity ratio has increased from 63.9% to 246.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 4FU's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (40.4%).

Interest Coverage: 4FU's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.5x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: 4FU has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: 4FU's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.2x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Alsea. de's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.70%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company1.7%marketbottom25%1.3%markettop25%3.6%industryaverage5.1%forecastin3Years2.0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: 4FU's dividend (1.7%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.31%).

High Dividend: 4FU's dividend (1.7%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (3.59%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 4FU's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 4FU's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: At its current payout ratio (76.2%), 4FU's payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: 4FU's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (48.6% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.1yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Alberto Torrado Martínez (56yo)

16.1yrs

Tenure

0

Mr. Alberto Torrado Martínez is Founder of Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. He serves as Executive Chairman of the Board at Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. since 2007and serves as its Executive President and Chief Executive Of ...


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Alberto Torrado Martínez
Founder16.1yrsno datano data
Rafael Contreras Grosskelwing
CFO and Director of Administration & Finance3.1yrsno datano data
Salvador Villaseñor Barragán
Head of Investor Relations0yrsno datano data
María del Socorro Guajardo
Director of Human Resources0yrsno datano data
Armando Torrado Martínez
Managing Director of South America & Director0yrsno datano data
Santiago Farinati
Managing Director of Chile1.1yrsno datano data
Miguel Ibarrola
Managing Director of Europe1.1yrsno datano data
Francisco Tosso
Managing Director of Alsea Colombia1.1yrsno datano data
Miguel Cavazza
MD & Supply Chain Director1.1yrsno datano data
Xavier Mangino Dueñas
Technical Secretary0yrsno datano data

1.1yrs

Average Tenure

50yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: 4FU's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Alberto Torrado Martínez
Founder16.1yrsno datano data
Armando Torrado Martínez
Managing Director of South America & Director0yrsno datano data
Ivan Moguel Kuri
Independent Director9.1yrsno datano data
Cosme Alberto Torrado Martínez
Director0yrsno datano data
Fabián Gerardo Gosselin Castro
Director0yrsno datano data
Federico Tejado Bárcena
Director0yrsno datano data
Julio Gutiérrez Mercadillo
Independent Director9.1yrsno datano data
Raúl Méndez Segura
Independent Director9.1yrsno datano data
León Kraig Eskenazi
Independent Director8.1yrsno datano data
Adriana Noreña
Independent Director0yrsno datano data

9.1yrs

Average Tenure

57yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: 4FU's board of directors are considered experienced (9.1 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V.
  • Ticker: 4FU
  • Exchange: DB
  • Founded: 1997
  • Industry: Restaurants
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Market Cap: Mex$38.482b
  • Listing Market Cap: Mex$1.911b
  • Shares outstanding: 838.58m
  • Website: https://www.alsea.net

Number of Employees


Location

  • Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V.
  • Avenida Revolución N° 1267
  • Torre Corporativa, Piso 21
  • Mexico City
  • Distrito Federal
  • 1040
  • Mexico

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
ALSS.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesClass I Ordinary Fixed CapitalUSUSDSep 2000
ALSEA *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesClass I Ordinary Fixed CapitalMXMXNSep 2000
4FUDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesClass I Ordinary Fixed CapitalDEEURSep 2000

Biography

Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates quick service, coffee shop, casual dining, and family dining restaurants. Its brand portfolio includes Domino’s Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili’s Grill & Bar, California Pizza Kitchen, P.F. Chang’s, Italianni’s, The Cheese Cake Factory, Vips, La Finca, El Portón, Archies, P.F, Chang’s, Foster’s Hollywood, Cañas and Tapas, Il Tempietto, La Vaca Argentina, VIPS, VIPS Smart, GINOS, Fridays, and Wagamama brands. The company also engages in factoring and financial leasing activities. It operates 3,688 units, including 1,805 quick services restaurants; 1,024 coffee shops; 573 casual dinning restaurants; and 286 family restaurants in Mexico, Spain, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Brazil, and Uruguay. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/16 21:25
End of Day Share Price2020/02/14 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.