Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

DB:CJA1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €49.7b

Alimentation Couche-Tard Valuation

Is CJA1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CJA1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€74.62
Fair Value
30.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: CJA1 (€52.18) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€74.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CJA1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CJA1?

Key metric: As CJA1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CJA1. This is calculated by dividing CJA1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CJA1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.9x
EarningsUS$2.58b
Market CapUS$51.23b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CJA1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CJA1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.7x
HAW Hawesko Holding
21.6x20.8%€225.5m
KR Kroger
15.5x4.9%US$42.6b
L Loblaw Companies
24.9x-0.5%CA$55.6b
3382 Seven & i Holdings
60.9x22.1%JP¥6.5t
CJA1 Alimentation Couche-Tard
19.9x11.6%€73.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CJA1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x) compared to the peer average (23.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CJA1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Retailing Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CJA1 19.9xIndustry Avg. 15.1xNo. of Companies9PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CJA1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x) compared to the European Consumer Retailing industry average (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CJA1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CJA1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.9x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CJA1's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CJA1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€52.18
€61.36
+17.6%
4.3%€66.24€55.38n/a15
Jan ’26€53.02
€60.94
+14.9%
4.3%€65.79€55.00n/a15
Dec ’25€55.60
€59.94
+7.8%
5.1%€67.04€53.89n/a14
Nov ’25€47.75
€59.62
+24.9%
4.6%€65.61€54.59n/a15
Oct ’25€49.34
€58.50
+18.6%
4.5%€63.84€53.12n/a15
Sep ’25€51.86
€58.66
+13.1%
4.9%€64.05€53.49n/a14
Aug ’25€56.64
€58.71
+3.7%
3.9%€64.05€53.97n/a16
Jul ’25€52.50
€58.48
+11.4%
7.3%€63.39€43.70n/a16
Jun ’25€52.94
€57.88
+9.3%
7.6%€62.65€43.15n/a15
May ’25€52.22
€58.98
+13.0%
7.4%€64.33€43.85n/a16
Apr ’25€52.90
€58.30
+10.2%
7.5%€64.14€43.22n/a16
Mar ’25€57.02
€57.89
+1.5%
7.8%€64.23€43.20n/a16
Feb ’25€54.50
€57.37
+5.3%
7.7%€63.20€42.84n/a16
Jan ’25€52.70
€56.91
+8.0%
7.5%€63.15€42.80€53.0216
Dec ’24€52.92
€57.96
+9.5%
3.9%€63.45€54.15€55.6015
Nov ’24€52.18
€57.62
+10.4%
4.5%€64.79€54.02€47.7515
Oct ’24€49.95
€54.76
+9.6%
3.5%€59.54€50.03€49.3415
Sep ’24€48.09
€52.99
+10.2%
4.3%€58.48€49.97€51.8616
Aug ’24€45.57
€53.00
+16.3%
5.0%€59.82€49.68€56.6416
Jul ’24€46.81
€52.08
+11.3%
6.5%€60.45€45.15€52.5016
Jun ’24€45.20
€49.21
+8.9%
5.8%€58.25€44.17€52.9416
May ’24€44.72
€48.00
+7.3%
5.9%€56.88€43.13€52.2216
Apr ’24€45.80
€49.07
+7.1%
5.6%€57.44€44.17€52.9016
Mar ’24€43.20
€47.73
+10.5%
7.7%€55.99€37.43€57.0216
Feb ’24€41.80
€46.73
+11.8%
7.6%€54.74€36.68€54.5016
Jan ’24€42.00
€48.07
+14.5%
7.7%€56.37€37.77€52.7016
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
€61.01
Fair Value
14.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/09 19:24
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/09 00:00
Earnings2024/10/13
Annual Earnings2024/04/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. is covered by 33 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jim MarroneAccountability Research Corporation
null nullArgus Research Company
James DurranBarclays