NCC AB (publ)

DB:NCGB Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.4b

NCC Valuation

Is NCGB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NCGB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NCGB (€13.76) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€19.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NCGB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NCGB?

Key metric: As NCGB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NCGB. This is calculated by dividing NCGB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NCGB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.7x
EarningsSEK 1.24b
Market CapSEK 15.84b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NCGB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NCGB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average64.4x
NCH2 thyssenkrupp nucera KGaA
189x55.9%€1.1b
HOT HOCHTIEF
12.1x2.5%€8.8b
B5A0 BAUER
31.9x38.2%€174.3m
PFV Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology
24.6xn/a€1.5b
NCGB NCC
12.7x6.4%€15.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NCGB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the peer average (64.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NCGB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Construction Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NCGB 12.7xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies19PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NCGB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the European Construction industry average (12.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NCGB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NCGB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.7x
Fair PE Ratio12.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NCGB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NCGB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€13.76
€15.67
+13.9%
4.1%€16.42€14.69n/a4
Nov ’25€14.20
€15.52
+9.3%
5.0%€16.50€14.76n/a4
Oct ’25€14.94
€14.63
-2.1%
2.1%€15.06€14.20n/a4
Sep ’25€13.87
€14.63
+5.5%
2.1%€15.06€14.20n/a4
Aug ’25€14.10
€14.63
+3.8%
2.1%€15.06€14.20n/a4
Jul ’25€12.02
€12.87
+7.1%
2.4%€13.30€12.44n/a4
Jun ’25€11.64
€12.87
+10.6%
2.4%€13.30€12.44n/a4
May ’25€11.29
€13.55
+20.0%
2.7%€14.10€13.22n/a4
Apr ’25€12.61
€13.55
+7.5%
2.7%€14.10€13.22n/a4
Mar ’25€12.55
€13.44
+7.1%
1.6%€13.73€13.29n/a3
Feb ’25€11.98
€13.04
+8.9%
3.2%€13.34€12.45n/a3
Jan ’25€11.19
€11.87
+6.1%
1.7%€12.16€11.73n/a3
Dec ’24€10.13
€11.87
+17.2%
1.7%€12.16€11.73n/a3
Nov ’24€9.41
€11.29
+20.0%
1.8%€11.43€11.00€14.203
Oct ’24€10.14
€11.71
+15.5%
3.0%€12.15€11.28€14.943
Sep ’24€9.38
€11.71
+25.0%
3.0%€12.15€11.28€13.873
Aug ’24€9.53
€11.71
+22.9%
3.0%€12.15€11.28€14.103
Jul ’24€7.82
€11.06
+41.5%
1.8%€11.20€10.77€12.023
Jun ’24€7.54
€11.06
+46.6%
1.8%€11.20€10.77€11.643
May ’24€8.86
€11.31
+27.8%
1.8%€11.46€11.02€11.293
Apr ’24€7.76
€11.31
+45.7%
2.0%€11.53€11.09€12.612
Mar ’24€8.72
€11.46
+31.5%
2.0%€11.69€11.24€12.552
Feb ’24€8.62
€10.79
+25.2%
2.0%€11.01€10.57€11.982
Jan ’24€8.69
€11.52
+32.6%
4.0%€11.99€11.06€11.192
Dec ’23€9.17
€11.52
+25.7%
4.0%€11.99€11.06€10.132
Nov ’23€8.92
€11.49
+28.8%
4.0%€11.95€11.03€9.412

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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