Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.

DB:K3R Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.1b

Harmonic Drive Systems Valuation

Is K3R undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of K3R when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: K3R (€10.9) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€5.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: K3R is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for K3R?

Key metric: As K3R is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for K3R. This is calculated by dividing K3R's market cap by their current revenue.
What is K3R's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.4x
SalesJP¥53.59b
Market CapJP¥179.54b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does K3R's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for K3R vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.8x
KSB KSB SE KGaA
0.4x4.4%€1.1b
PFV Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology
1.7xn/a€1.5b
STM Stabilus
0.6x5.7%€822.5m
DUE Dürr
0.3x4.1%€1.5b
K3R Harmonic Drive Systems
3.4x10.3%€179.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: K3R is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.4x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does K3R's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Machinery Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HDD Heidelberger Druckmaschinen
0.1x4.3%US$292.70m
SF3 STS Group
0.08x4.2%US$24.60m
GRF Greiffenberger
0.07xn/aUS$4.33m
SCM SCHUMAG
0.04xn/aUS$1.89m
No more companies available in this PS range
K3R 3.4xIndustry Avg. 0.5xNo. of Companies11PS00.61.21.82.43+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: K3R is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.4x) compared to the German Machinery industry average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is K3R's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

K3R PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.4x
Fair PS Ratio0.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: K3R is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst K3R forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€10.90
€24.52
+125.0%
30.1%€35.39€15.25n/a10
Nov ’25€15.10
€28.49
+88.7%
24.4%€36.93€15.39n/a10
Oct ’25€21.20
€29.75
+40.3%
24.9%€38.32€15.97n/a10
Sep ’25€21.20
€29.72
+40.2%
19.2%€36.85€17.20n/a10
Aug ’25€24.40
€28.44
+16.6%
18.3%€35.09€16.37n/a10
Jul ’25€25.20
€28.36
+12.5%
21.5%€35.57€16.60n/a9
Jun ’25€23.80
€27.44
+15.3%
20.9%€35.15€17.58n/a8
May ’25€23.20
€27.37
+18.0%
19.3%€34.14€17.97n/a8
Apr ’25€23.80
€28.51
+19.8%
17.7%€35.44€18.65n/a9
Mar ’25€25.00
€28.45
+13.8%
17.1%€34.86€18.35n/a10
Feb ’25€21.60
€30.06
+39.2%
17.7%€36.35€18.80n/a10
Jan ’25€26.00
€30.76
+18.3%
14.8%€36.31€18.78n/a10
Dec ’24€26.00
€29.79
+14.6%
14.8%€35.46€18.34n/a10
Nov ’24€20.00
€30.58
+52.9%
16.3%€37.33€18.98€15.1010
Oct ’24€20.60
€31.12
+51.1%
13.9%€37.60€22.31€21.2010
Sep ’24€24.20
€29.69
+22.7%
19.7%€37.03€16.95€21.2011
Aug ’24€23.60
€31.99
+35.6%
19.7%€39.15€17.33€24.4011
Jul ’24€28.80
€32.41
+12.5%
19.0%€38.98€17.25€25.2013
Jun ’24€31.40
€32.31
+2.9%
23.1%€40.70€17.95€23.8014
May ’24€27.20
€32.92
+21.0%
23.1%€41.65€18.37€23.2014
Apr ’24€29.80
€34.06
+14.3%
23.8%€43.29€19.09€23.8014
Mar ’24€33.40
€34.01
+1.8%
21.0%€42.52€18.82€25.0014
Feb ’24€30.80
€33.09
+7.4%
24.4%€47.88€21.55€21.6013
Jan ’24€26.00
€32.99
+26.9%
24.8%€48.61€21.87€26.0012
Dec ’23€26.00
€33.79
+30.0%
23.5%€46.79€21.06€26.0012
Nov ’23€32.80
€35.39
+7.9%
22.1%€48.03€22.60€20.0012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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