Mueller Water Products Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of JT5 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

JT5 (€19.9) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€31.28)

Is JT5 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of JT5 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: JT5 (€19.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€31.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: JT5 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for JT5?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for JT5. This is calculated by dividing JT5's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is JT5's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$3.41b

JT5 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.1x
PEG Ratio	1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does JT5's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for JT5 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	19.6x
GIL DMG MORI	19.8x	n/a	€3.5b
KRN Krones	15.7x	16.4%	€3.7b
PFV Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology	24.3x	n/a	€1.5b
G1A GEA Group	18.6x	7.2%	€7.6b
JT5 Mueller Water Products	27.9x	18.6%	€3.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: JT5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x) compared to the peer average (19.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does JT5's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Machinery Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	10.7%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	10.7%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: JT5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x) compared to the German Machinery industry average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is JT5's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

JT5 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	27.7x
Fair PE Ratio	19.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: JT5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst JT5 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	€19.90	€21.88 +10.0%	8.7%	€24.04	€18.49	n/a	6
Oct ’25	€19.30	€21.22 +9.9%	6.8%	€22.90	€18.32	n/a	6
Sep ’25	€18.90	€21.22 +12.3%	6.8%	€22.90	€18.32	n/a	6
Aug ’25	€19.00	€19.85 +4.5%	10.0%	€22.33	€17.68	n/a	6
Jul ’25	€16.50	€19.70 +19.4%	10.0%	€22.34	€17.68	n/a	6
Jun ’25	€16.90	€19.70 +16.6%	10.0%	€22.34	€17.68	n/a	6
May ’25	€15.00	€17.22 +14.8%	6.0%	€18.79	€15.97	n/a	6
Apr ’25	€14.70	€16.71 +13.7%	9.9%	€18.56	€13.92	n/a	5
Mar ’25	€14.40	€16.71 +16.0%	9.9%	€18.56	€13.92	n/a	5
Feb ’25	€12.70	€14.59 +14.8%	11.0%	€17.43	€12.84	n/a	5
Jan ’25	€13.10	€14.59 +11.3%	11.0%	€17.43	€12.84	n/a	5
Dec ’24	€12.10	€14.38 +18.8%	11.9%	€17.72	€13.06	n/a	6
Nov ’24	€11.60	€13.86 +19.5%	12.5%	€17.27	€12.72	€19.80	6
Oct ’24	€12.00	€13.86 +15.5%	12.5%	€17.27	€12.72	€19.30	6
Sep ’24	€13.00	€13.86 +6.6%	12.5%	€17.27	€12.72	€18.90	6
Aug ’24	€14.60	€14.44 -1.1%	13.8%	€17.82	€12.47	€19.00	7
Jul ’24	€14.80	€14.60 -1.4%	11.4%	€17.41	€12.83	€16.50	7
Jun ’24	€12.80	€14.29 +11.6%	11.6%	€17.30	€12.75	€16.90	8
May ’24	€12.10	€13.34 +10.2%	14.3%	€16.78	€10.25	€15.00	8
Apr ’24	€12.40	€13.34 +7.6%	14.3%	€16.78	€10.25	€14.70	8
Mar ’24	€13.00	€13.17 +1.3%	14.7%	€16.86	€10.30	€14.40	8
Feb ’24	€11.60	€11.62 +0.2%	14.2%	€14.72	€10.12	€12.70	8
Jan ’24	€10.10	€12.04 +19.2%	15.3%	€15.62	€9.76	€13.10	9
Dec ’23	€11.10	€12.04 +8.5%	15.3%	€15.62	€9.76	€12.10	9
Nov ’23	€11.80	€12.16 +3.0%	17.6%	€17.40	€10.24	€11.60	8

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.