ITOCHU Corporation

DB:IOC Stock Report

Market Cap: €65.8b

ITOCHU Valuation

Is IOC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of IOC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: IOC (€45.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€51.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: IOC is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for IOC?

Key metric: As IOC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for IOC. This is calculated by dividing IOC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is IOC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.7x
EarningsJP¥827.31b
Market CapJP¥10.52t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does IOC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for IOC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.8x
BNR Brenntag
16.4x15.6%€8.9b
ENR Siemens Energy
33.2x23.4%€39.4b
SIE Siemens
17.1x5.4%€140.9b
DTG Daimler Truck Holding
8.3x13.1%€27.9b
IOC ITOCHU
12.7x4.9%€10.5t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: IOC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the peer average (18.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does IOC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
IOC 12.7xIndustry Avg. 14.4xNo. of Companies11PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: IOC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is IOC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

IOC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.7x
Fair PE Ratio20.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: IOC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst IOC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€45.92
€55.64
+21.2%
10.9%€68.59€46.15n/a9
Nov ’25€45.96
€53.45
+16.3%
12.0%€67.44€44.96n/a9
Oct ’25€49.24
€55.22
+12.1%
11.5%€69.91€46.61n/a10
Sep ’25€48.26
€53.37
+10.6%
14.3%€71.86€41.50n/a10
Aug ’25€44.81
€50.47
+12.6%
8.8%€57.33€40.43n/a9
Jul ’25€45.64
€46.00
+0.8%
10.7%€55.42€39.09n/a9
Jun ’25€43.50
€43.70
+0.5%
7.4%€49.90€39.33n/a9
May ’25€42.70
€44.51
+4.2%
8.1%€51.95€38.50n/a9
Apr ’25€40.06
€44.51
+11.1%
8.1%€51.95€38.50n/a9
Mar ’25€40.89
€43.60
+6.6%
8.6%€52.24€38.72n/a9
Feb ’25€42.60
€41.53
-2.5%
6.6%€44.20€35.48n/a9
Jan ’25€36.87
€41.60
+12.8%
6.8%€44.56€36.29n/a9
Dec ’24€36.93
€39.70
+7.5%
7.9%€43.23€35.20n/a9
Nov ’24€35.03
€40.34
+15.2%
8.3%€44.25€34.77€45.969
Oct ’24€34.58
€40.34
+16.7%
8.3%€44.25€34.77€49.249
Sep ’24€35.67
€39.74
+11.4%
9.3%€44.45€34.29€48.269
Aug ’24€36.53
€40.05
+9.6%
9.1%€45.89€35.40€44.819
Jul ’24€36.21
€37.64
+3.9%
12.1%€44.63€31.24€45.649
Jun ’24€32.50
€35.05
+7.8%
7.1%€39.13€31.70€43.508
May ’24€30.46
€34.25
+12.4%
7.2%€39.11€31.69€42.708
Apr ’24€29.64
€36.50
+23.1%
7.3%€41.94€33.98€40.068
Mar ’24€28.27
€35.50
+25.6%
8.8%€40.96€31.94€40.898
Feb ’24€29.45
€35.27
+19.8%
11.9%€41.69€26.85€42.609
Jan ’24€29.09
€34.59
+18.9%
11.9%€40.97€26.39€36.879
Dec ’23€30.27
€33.78
+11.6%
9.5%€37.21€26.68€36.939
Nov ’23€26.93
€34.21
+27.0%
9.3%€37.98€27.23€35.039

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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