Grafton Group Valuation

Is GN5 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GN5 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GN5 (€11.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€12.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GN5 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GN5?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

GN5 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA8.4x
PEG Ratio12x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GN5's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GN5 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.1x
BNR Brenntag
16x8.4%€11.4b
NWX Nordwest Handel
4.8xn/a€67.3m
K1R KROMI Logistik
43.1xn/a€36.7m
HMU HMS Bergbau
8.6xn/a€107.2m
GN5 Grafton Group
13.4x1.1%€2.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GN5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the peer average (9.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GN5's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GN5 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (14.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GN5's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GN5 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.4x
Fair PE Ratio11.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GN5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GN5 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€11.62
€13.19
+13.5%
8.2%€15.10€10.96n/a10
Mar ’25€11.36
€12.46
+9.7%
9.6%€15.16€11.01n/a10
Feb ’25€11.38
€12.37
+8.7%
9.9%€15.18€11.02n/a9
Jan ’25€10.61
€11.79
+11.1%
12.7%€14.93€9.40n/a9
Dec ’24€9.40
€11.68
+24.3%
12.7%€14.80€9.31n/a9
Nov ’24€9.05
€12.18
+34.6%
12.9%€14.93€9.42n/a7
Oct ’24€10.38
€12.53
+20.6%
10.4%€15.09€10.56n/a7
Sep ’24€10.05
€12.58
+25.2%
10.5%€15.18€10.62n/a7
Aug ’24€10.18
€12.50
+22.9%
11.6%€15.21€10.00n/a7
Jul ’24€8.96
€12.51
+39.7%
9.7%€15.04€10.93n/a7
Jun ’24€9.46
€12.51
+32.2%
9.7%€15.04€10.93n/a7
May ’24€9.57
€12.45
+30.0%
8.5%€14.79€11.26n/a8
Apr ’24€10.04
€12.45
+23.9%
8.5%€14.79€11.26n/a8
Mar ’24€10.74
€12.26
+14.2%
11.1%€14.90€10.60€11.368
Feb ’24€10.37
€12.26
+18.2%
11.1%€14.90€10.60€11.388
Jan ’24€8.98
€12.26
+36.6%
11.1%€14.90€10.60€10.618
Dec ’23€9.06
€12.26
+35.2%
11.1%€14.90€10.60€9.408
Nov ’23€8.01
€12.52
+56.3%
9.6%€14.88€10.81€9.057
Oct ’23€7.13
€13.01
+82.4%
23.2%€19.59€8.53€10.388
Sep ’23€8.24
€14.11
+71.1%
24.6%€19.66€8.56€10.058
Aug ’23€10.02
€15.40
+53.6%
24.0%€20.13€8.76€10.188
Jul ’23€8.94
€16.43
+83.9%
15.7%€19.75€13.36€8.968
Jun ’23€10.95
€16.45
+50.2%
13.8%€19.18€13.53€9.468
May ’23€11.70
€17.21
+47.1%
10.6%€19.43€13.71€9.578
Apr ’23€11.62
€17.88
+53.8%
11.0%€20.44€13.83€10.0410
Mar ’23€12.92
€18.23
+41.1%
10.7%€20.33€13.76€10.7410

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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