Grafton Group plc

DB:GN5 Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.3b

Grafton Group Valuation

Is GN5 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GN5 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GN5 (€11.47) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€14.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GN5 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GN5?

Key metric: As GN5 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GN5. This is calculated by dividing GN5's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GN5's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.4x
EarningsUK£131.28m
Market CapUK£1.89b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GN5's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GN5 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.4x
BNR Brenntag
16.3x15.6%€8.9b
NWX Nordwest Handel
6.1xn/a€67.3m
HMU HMS Bergbau
10.4x8.0%€131.8m
ETE Ekotechnika
0.9xn/a€25.7m
GN5 Grafton Group
14.4x5.8%€1.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GN5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the peer average (8.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GN5's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GN5 14.4xIndustry Avg. 14.4xNo. of Companies10PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GN5 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (14.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GN5's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GN5 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.4x
Fair PE Ratio13x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GN5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GN5 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€11.47
€14.43
+25.9%
3.3%€15.20€13.53n/a10
Nov ’25€11.85
€14.31
+20.8%
3.0%€15.20€13.53n/a9
Oct ’25€12.15
€14.00
+15.2%
2.8%€14.59€13.22n/a9
Sep ’25€12.57
€13.94
+10.9%
2.9%€14.61€13.25n/a9
Aug ’25€12.66
€13.50
+6.6%
5.7%€14.63€11.83n/a9
Jul ’25€10.94
€13.33
+21.8%
5.7%€14.45€11.69n/a9
Jun ’25€11.66
€13.40
+14.9%
6.5%€15.06€11.74n/a10
May ’25€11.24
€13.36
+18.9%
6.2%€15.04€11.73n/a10
Apr ’25€11.55
€13.45
+16.5%
5.9%€15.12€12.02n/a10
Mar ’25€11.36
€12.46
+9.7%
9.6%€15.16€11.01n/a10
Feb ’25€11.38
€12.37
+8.7%
9.9%€15.18€11.02n/a9
Jan ’25€10.61
€11.68
+10.1%
12.7%€14.80€9.31n/a9
Dec ’24€9.40
€11.68
+24.3%
12.7%€14.80€9.31n/a9
Nov ’24€9.05
€12.18
+34.6%
12.9%€14.93€9.42€11.857
Oct ’24€10.38
€12.53
+20.6%
10.4%€15.09€10.56€12.157
Sep ’24€10.05
€12.58
+25.2%
10.5%€15.18€10.62€12.577
Aug ’24€10.18
€12.50
+22.9%
11.6%€15.21€10.00€12.667
Jul ’24€8.96
€12.51
+39.7%
9.7%€15.04€10.93€10.947
Jun ’24€9.46
€12.51
+32.2%
9.7%€15.04€10.93€11.667
May ’24€9.57
€12.45
+30.0%
8.5%€14.79€11.26€11.248
Apr ’24€10.04
€12.45
+23.9%
8.5%€14.79€11.26€11.558
Mar ’24€10.74
€12.26
+14.2%
11.1%€14.90€10.60€11.368
Feb ’24€10.37
€12.26
+18.2%
11.1%€14.90€10.60€11.388
Jan ’24€8.98
€12.26
+36.6%
11.1%€14.90€10.60€10.618
Dec ’23€9.06
€12.26
+35.2%
11.1%€14.90€10.60€9.408
Nov ’23€8.01
€12.52
+56.3%
9.6%€14.88€10.81€9.057

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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