Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Gesco SE (ETR:GSC1) Price Target After Its Latest Report

Last week, you might have seen that Gesco SE (ETR:GSC1) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to €14.40 in the past week. Gesco reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of €237m and statutory earnings per share of €0.37, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Gesco after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Gesco's three analysts is for revenues of €520.2m in 2026. This reflects a modest 4.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 106% to €1.47. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €546.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.84 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Gesco

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 5.0% to €24.10. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gesco at €28.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €20.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 3.7% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 4.4% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 5.8% annually. So although Gesco is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Gesco. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Gesco. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Gesco going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Gesco's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.