What GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft's (ETR:G1A) P/E Is Not Telling You

With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 17x in Germany, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft's (ETR:G1A) P/E ratio of 16.7x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

GEA Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like GEA Group's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 2.5%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 206% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 11% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 15% per year growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we find it interesting that GEA Group is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that GEA Group currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for GEA Group with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.