Caterpillar Inc.

XTRA:CAT1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €167.4b

Caterpillar Valuation

Is CAT1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CAT1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CAT1 (€347.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€569.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CAT1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CAT1?

Key metric: As CAT1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CAT1. This is calculated by dividing CAT1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CAT1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.3x
EarningsUS$10.68b
Market CapUS$173.99b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CAT1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CAT1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.2x
DTG Daimler Truck Holding
8.7x12.9%€29.1b
8TRA Traton
5.4x8.9%€13.8b
KBX Knorr-Bremse
18.6x10.7%€11.1b
KGX KION GROUP
12.3x17.2%€4.1b
CAT1 Caterpillar
16.6x4.6%€174.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CAT1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the peer average (11.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CAT1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Machinery Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
CAT1 16.3xIndustry Avg. 15.0xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CAT1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the German Machinery industry average (15x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CAT1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CAT1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.3x
Fair PE Ratio22.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CAT1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CAT1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€347.50
€377.74
+8.7%
17.8%€493.58€239.60n/a21
Dec ’25€387.50
€363.99
-6.1%
18.6%€480.15€240.08n/a21
Nov ’25€351.50
€336.51
-4.3%
19.8%€461.40€230.70n/a21
Oct ’25€354.50
€318.86
-10.1%
18.4%€419.18€224.95n/a22
Sep ’25€318.00
€313.50
-1.4%
17.6%€418.57€224.62n/a23
Aug ’25€309.50
€318.93
+3.0%
17.4%€425.86€224.86n/a24
Jul ’25€307.00
€325.36
+6.0%
16.7%€434.44€229.39n/a26
Jun ’25€310.50
€320.32
+3.2%
16.7%€429.62€226.85n/a26
May ’25€316.50
€314.59
-0.6%
18.0%€412.47€163.68n/a27
Apr ’25€339.00
€295.83
-12.7%
17.6%€406.87€161.46n/a27
Mar ’25€310.00
€290.20
-6.4%
17.0%€407.53€161.72n/a26
Feb ’25€280.00
€256.89
-8.3%
17.9%€397.44€161.00n/a26
Jan ’25€269.00
€244.14
-9.2%
15.5%€331.42€158.90n/a25
Dec ’24€234.00
€243.72
+4.2%
15.7%€334.63€160.44€387.5025
Nov ’24€217.00
€258.88
+19.3%
16.2%€345.40€165.60€351.5024
Oct ’24€260.00
€271.20
+4.3%
15.2%€346.49€166.58€354.5024
Sep ’24€265.00
€262.49
-0.9%
15.8%€336.48€161.77€318.0025
Aug ’24€259.00
€236.48
-8.7%
16.3%€319.59€159.34€309.5025
Jul ’24€226.00
€227.78
+0.8%
15.9%€322.96€161.02€307.0025
Jun ’24€194.50
€227.09
+16.8%
15.9%€322.82€163.75€310.5026
May ’24€198.50
€223.27
+12.5%
16.3%€314.47€159.51€316.5025
Apr ’24€209.00
€232.28
+11.1%
16.0%€310.68€161.33€339.0026
Mar ’24€232.00
€238.76
+2.9%
15.1%€317.69€164.97€310.0026
Feb ’24€228.00
€232.02
+1.8%
14.1%€306.77€172.96€280.0025
Jan ’24€224.00
€220.56
-1.5%
13.0%€268.50€164.87€269.0026
Dec ’23€223.00
€222.73
-0.1%
13.6%€275.25€168.05€234.0026

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 20:39
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Caterpillar Inc. is covered by 68 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John EadeArgus Research Company
William GraceAvondale Partners
Mircea DobreBaird