Caterpillar Inc.

XTRA:CAT1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €176.1b

Caterpillar Valuation

Is CAT1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CAT1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CAT1 (€366) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€285.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CAT1 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CAT1?

Key metric: As CAT1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CAT1. This is calculated by dividing CAT1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CAT1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.4x
EarningsUS$10.68b
Market CapUS$185.43b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CAT1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CAT1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.9x
DTG Daimler Truck Holding
8.6x11.6%€28.7b
8TRA Traton
5.7x8.1%€14.8b
KBX Knorr-Bremse
19.5x10.8%€11.7b
KGX KION GROUP
13.6x17.4%€4.5b
CAT1 Caterpillar
17.4x-0.08%€185.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CAT1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the peer average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CAT1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Machinery Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
CAT1 17.4xIndustry Avg. 14.6xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CAT1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the German Machinery industry average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CAT1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CAT1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.4x
Fair PE Ratio20.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CAT1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CAT1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€366.00
€357.25
-2.4%
19.1%€473.50€236.75n/a20
Nov ’25€351.50
€336.51
-4.3%
19.8%€461.40€230.70n/a21
Oct ’25€354.50
€318.86
-10.1%
18.4%€419.18€224.95n/a22
Sep ’25€318.00
€313.50
-1.4%
17.6%€418.57€224.62n/a23
Aug ’25€309.50
€318.93
+3.0%
17.4%€425.86€224.86n/a24
Jul ’25€307.00
€325.36
+6.0%
16.7%€434.44€229.39n/a26
Jun ’25€310.50
€320.32
+3.2%
16.7%€429.62€226.85n/a26
May ’25€316.50
€314.59
-0.6%
18.0%€412.47€163.68n/a27
Apr ’25€339.00
€295.83
-12.7%
17.6%€406.87€161.46n/a27
Mar ’25€310.00
€290.20
-6.4%
17.0%€407.53€161.72n/a26
Feb ’25€280.00
€256.89
-8.3%
17.9%€397.44€161.00n/a26
Jan ’25€269.00
€244.14
-9.2%
15.5%€331.42€158.90n/a25
Dec ’24€234.00
€243.72
+4.2%
15.7%€334.63€160.44n/a25
Nov ’24€217.00
€258.88
+19.3%
16.2%€345.40€165.60€351.5024
Oct ’24€260.00
€271.20
+4.3%
15.2%€346.49€166.58€354.5024
Sep ’24€265.00
€262.49
-0.9%
15.8%€336.48€161.77€318.0025
Aug ’24€259.00
€236.48
-8.7%
16.3%€319.59€159.34€309.5025
Jul ’24€226.00
€227.78
+0.8%
15.9%€322.96€161.02€307.0025
Jun ’24€194.50
€227.09
+16.8%
15.9%€322.82€163.75€310.5026
May ’24€198.50
€223.27
+12.5%
16.3%€314.47€159.51€316.5025
Apr ’24€209.00
€232.28
+11.1%
16.0%€310.68€161.33€339.0026
Mar ’24€232.00
€238.76
+2.9%
15.1%€317.69€164.97€310.0026
Feb ’24€228.00
€232.02
+1.8%
14.1%€306.77€172.96€280.0025
Jan ’24€224.00
€220.56
-1.5%
13.0%€268.50€164.87€269.0026
Dec ’23€223.00
€222.73
-0.1%
13.6%€275.25€168.05€234.0026
Nov ’23€222.00
€228.34
+2.9%
12.4%€287.52€176.16€217.0026

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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