Analysts Are More Bearish On Aumann AG (ETR:AAG) Than They Used To Be

The analysts covering Aumann AG (ETR:AAG) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for next year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon. Bidders are definitely seeing a different story, with the stock price of €12.02 reflecting a 18% rise in the past week. With such a sharp increase, it seems brokers may have seen something that is not yet being priced in by the wider market.

After the downgrade, the consensus from Aumann's three analysts is for revenues of €250m in 2025, which would reflect a concerning 23% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to dive 38% to €0.78 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €281m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.05 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a pretty serious decline to earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for Aumann

Analysts made no major changes to their price target of €13.40, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Aumann's valuation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aumann's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 19% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.4% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.9% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Aumann is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Aumann. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Aumann's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected next year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Aumann.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Aumann analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.