Old National Bancorp

DB:ON1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.6b

Old National Bancorp Valuation

Is ON1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ON1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ON1 (€19.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€42.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ON1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ON1?

Key metric: As ON1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ON1. This is calculated by dividing ON1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ON1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.8x
EarningsUS$501.66m
Market CapUS$6.91b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ON1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ON1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.4x
CBK Commerzbank
8.5x8.8%€18.2b
AUBANK AU Small Finance Bank
24.3x24.3%₹443.1b
DUBK Dukhan Bank Q.P.S.C
14.9x10.8%ر.ق18.8b
COLB Columbia Banking System
13.7x9.4%US$6.6b
ON1 Old National Bancorp
13.8x13.2%€6.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ON1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the peer average (15.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ON1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ON1 13.8xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies46PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ON1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ON1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ON1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.8x
Fair PE Ratio11.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ON1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ON1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€19.80
€22.20
+12.1%
6.4%€24.70€19.95n/a8
Nov ’25€17.50
€20.95
+19.7%
3.6%€22.17€19.40n/a8
Oct ’25€16.50
€20.52
+24.4%
3.5%€21.47€19.24n/a8
Sep ’25€17.50
€20.99
+19.9%
3.3%€22.20€19.89n/a8
Aug ’25€18.20
€20.99
+15.3%
3.3%€22.20€19.89n/a8
Jul ’25€15.70
€18.74
+19.4%
4.6%€20.49€17.70n/a8
Jun ’25€15.20
€18.69
+22.9%
3.8%€19.62€17.75n/a7
May ’25€15.40
€18.69
+21.4%
3.8%€19.62€17.75n/a7
Apr ’25€15.90
€18.29
+15.0%
4.9%€19.55€16.76n/a7
Mar ’25€15.00
€18.02
+20.1%
4.9%€19.41€16.63n/a7
Feb ’25€15.00
€18.06
+20.4%
4.6%€19.37€16.61n/a7
Jan ’25€15.20
€16.71
+10.0%
11.3%€19.88€14.00n/a7
Dec ’24€13.50
€15.57
+15.3%
6.8%€17.47€14.25n/a7
Nov ’24€12.90
€16.28
+26.2%
8.4%€18.37€14.60€17.507
Oct ’24€13.50
€17.23
+27.6%
4.1%€18.45€16.08€16.507
Sep ’24€13.90
€16.72
+20.3%
4.7%€17.69€15.42€17.507
Aug ’24€15.30
€16.72
+9.3%
4.7%€17.69€15.42€18.207
Jul ’24€12.70
€15.18
+19.5%
7.7%€17.33€13.23€15.707
Jun ’24€11.50
€15.65
+36.1%
7.4%€17.71€13.52€15.207
May ’24€12.00
€15.42
+28.5%
8.2%€17.24€13.15€15.407
Apr ’24€12.90
€17.42
+35.0%
9.7%€20.17€14.67€15.907
Mar ’24€16.40
€19.48
+18.8%
5.3%€20.74€17.91€15.006
Feb ’24€15.80
€18.94
+19.9%
5.3%€20.16€17.41€15.006
Jan ’24€16.80
€21.61
+28.7%
5.0%€23.23€20.32€15.206
Dec ’23€18.00
€21.61
+20.1%
5.0%€23.23€20.32€13.506
Nov ’23€19.50
€22.41
+14.9%
5.0%€24.08€21.07€12.906

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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