National Bank of Canada

DB:NBC Stock Report

Market Cap: €30.6b

National Bank of Canada Valuation

Is NBC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NBC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NBC (€88.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€161.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NBC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NBC?

Key metric: As NBC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NBC. This is calculated by dividing NBC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NBC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.6x
EarningsCA$3.66b
Market CapCA$45.53b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NBC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NBC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.1x
CBK Commerzbank
8.7x8.9%€18.6b
PCZ ProCredit Holding
4.3x12.2%€444.1m
MBK Merkur PrivatBank KgaA
10.5x8.5%€113.6m
000001 Ping An Bank
5.1x5.7%CN¥220.8b
NBC National Bank of Canada
12.6x-1.0%€45.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the peer average (7.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NBC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NBC 12.6xIndustry Avg. 7.8xNo. of Companies42PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NBC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NBC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.6x
Fair PE Ratio10.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NBC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€88.24
€93.94
+6.5%
7.9%€102.97€72.88n/a12
Dec ’25€92.76
€93.86
+1.2%
9.4%€104.11€73.69n/a12
Nov ’25€87.36
€84.18
-3.6%
7.0%€93.23€72.07n/a13
Oct ’25€84.36
€84.50
+0.2%
6.5%€94.32€72.92n/a13
Sep ’25€82.70
€83.28
+0.7%
5.2%€89.72€72.98n/a13
Aug ’25€77.10
€80.48
+4.4%
5.4%€88.49€71.48n/a13
Jul ’25€73.74
€80.00
+8.5%
5.5%€88.26€71.28n/a12
Jun ’25€77.86
€80.09
+2.9%
5.8%€87.95€71.03n/a13
May ’25€75.78
€76.78
+1.3%
6.4%€88.75€68.95n/a13
Apr ’25€78.00
€76.43
-2.0%
5.7%€88.39€71.39n/a12
Mar ’25€72.00
€73.97
+2.7%
3.1%€77.71€68.85n/a12
Feb ’25€70.50
€70.33
-0.2%
3.0%€72.93€65.43n/a11
Jan ’25€68.50
€69.62
+1.6%
4.6%€73.10€62.85€86.9011
Dec ’24€60.50
€67.49
+11.6%
4.2%€71.04€61.66€92.7610
Nov ’24€58.50
€70.05
+19.7%
4.0%€72.91€62.69€87.3610
Oct ’24€63.50
€72.50
+14.2%
1.8%€74.52€70.34€84.3610
Sep ’24€64.00
€70.93
+10.8%
3.2%€73.66€65.47€82.7012
Aug ’24€71.00
€71.65
+0.9%
4.7%€76.19€63.15€77.1013
Jul ’24€67.50
€72.13
+6.9%
4.8%€76.88€63.72€73.7413
Jun ’24€67.00
€72.50
+8.2%
4.6%€76.70€64.26€77.8613
May ’24€66.50
€72.38
+8.8%
4.8%€76.66€66.48€75.7813
Apr ’24€65.00
€72.38
+11.3%
4.8%€76.66€66.48€78.0013
Mar ’24€69.00
€73.43
+6.4%
4.4%€77.26€67.60€72.0013
Feb ’24€69.00
€71.85
+4.1%
6.5%€79.54€64.33€70.5013
Jan ’24€63.00
€71.85
+14.1%
6.5%€79.54€64.33€68.5013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/03 08:27
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings2024/10/31
Annual Earnings2024/10/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

National Bank of Canada is covered by 24 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John AikenBarclays
Brian MortonBarclays
Sohrab MovahediBMO Capital Markets Equity Research