National Bank of Canada

DB:NBC Stock Report

Market Cap: €32.2b

National Bank of Canada Valuation

Is NBC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NBC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NBC (€93.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€167.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NBC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NBC?

Key metric: As NBC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NBC. This is calculated by dividing NBC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NBC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.4x
EarningsCA$3.51b
Market CapCA$46.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NBC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NBC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.3x
CBK Commerzbank
8.5x8.8%€18.2b
PCZ ProCredit Holding
4.2x9.9%€450.0m
MBK Merkur PrivatBank KgaA
10x8.6%€107.3m
7182 JAPAN POST BANK
14.3x7.4%JP¥5.2t
NBC National Bank of Canada
13.4x0.1%€46.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the peer average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NBC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NBC 13.4xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies46PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NBC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NBC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.4x
Fair PE Ratio10.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NBC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€93.50
€92.43
-1.1%
9.0%€104.50€74.44n/a12
Nov ’25€87.36
€84.18
-3.6%
7.0%€93.23€72.07n/a13
Oct ’25€84.36
€84.50
+0.2%
6.5%€94.32€72.92n/a13
Sep ’25€82.70
€83.28
+0.7%
5.2%€89.72€72.98n/a13
Aug ’25€77.10
€80.48
+4.4%
5.4%€88.49€71.48n/a13
Jul ’25€73.74
€80.00
+8.5%
5.5%€88.26€71.28n/a12
Jun ’25€77.86
€80.09
+2.9%
5.8%€87.95€71.03n/a13
May ’25€75.78
€76.78
+1.3%
6.4%€88.75€68.95n/a13
Apr ’25€78.00
€76.43
-2.0%
5.7%€88.39€71.39n/a12
Mar ’25€72.00
€73.97
+2.7%
3.1%€77.71€68.85n/a12
Feb ’25€70.50
€70.33
-0.2%
3.0%€72.93€65.43n/a11
Jan ’25€68.50
€69.62
+1.6%
4.6%€73.10€62.85n/a11
Dec ’24€60.50
€67.49
+11.6%
4.2%€71.04€61.66n/a10
Nov ’24€58.50
€70.05
+19.7%
4.0%€72.91€62.69€87.3610
Oct ’24€63.50
€72.50
+14.2%
1.8%€74.52€70.34€84.3610
Sep ’24€64.00
€70.93
+10.8%
3.2%€73.66€65.47€82.7012
Aug ’24€71.00
€71.65
+0.9%
4.7%€76.19€63.15€77.1013
Jul ’24€67.50
€72.13
+6.9%
4.8%€76.88€63.72€73.7413
Jun ’24€67.00
€72.50
+8.2%
4.6%€76.70€64.26€77.8613
May ’24€66.50
€72.38
+8.8%
4.8%€76.66€66.48€75.7813
Apr ’24€65.00
€72.38
+11.3%
4.8%€76.66€66.48€78.0013
Mar ’24€69.00
€73.43
+6.4%
4.4%€77.26€67.60€72.0013
Feb ’24€69.00
€71.85
+4.1%
6.5%€79.54€64.33€70.5013
Jan ’24€63.00
€71.85
+14.1%
6.5%€79.54€64.33€68.5013
Dec ’23€68.00
€73.09
+7.5%
6.3%€81.33€65.77€60.5013
Nov ’23€68.50
€76.17
+11.2%
6.8%€82.95€65.17€58.5013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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