Commerce Bancshares, Inc.

DB:CB5 Stock Report

Market Cap: €9.1b

Commerce Bancshares Valuation

Is CB5 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CB5 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CB5 (€68.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€117.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CB5 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CB5?

Key metric: As CB5 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CB5. This is calculated by dividing CB5's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CB5's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.1x
EarningsUS$494.82m
Market CapUS$9.45b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CB5's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CB5 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.3x
CBK Commerzbank
8.5x8.8%€18.2b
PNFP Pinnacle Financial Partners
23.9x23.6%US$9.7b
SSB SouthState
16.7x27.9%US$8.3b
3618 Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank
4x4.9%HK$62.1b
CB5 Commerce Bancshares
19.1x0.3%€9.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CB5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x) compared to the peer average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CB5's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CB5 19.1xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies46PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CB5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CB5's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CB5 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.1x
Fair PE Ratio9.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CB5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CB5 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€68.50
€66.84
-2.4%
7.9%€75.54€58.54n/a7
Nov ’25€57.50
€61.10
+6.3%
3.8%€64.73€57.33n/a7
Oct ’25€53.00
€60.08
+13.4%
4.7%€64.14€56.01n/a7
Sep ’25€57.00
€59.38
+4.2%
4.4%€63.81€55.73n/a8
Aug ’25€59.50
€60.23
+1.2%
6.1%€65.60€53.59n/a8
Jul ’25€51.50
€54.35
+5.5%
5.7%€59.72€48.52n/a8
Jun ’25€51.00
€53.44
+4.8%
6.3%€59.35€48.22n/a8
May ’25€51.00
€52.25
+2.4%
5.3%€57.17€48.73n/a8
Apr ’25€48.80
€48.84
+0.08%
5.0%€53.09€45.73n/a7
Mar ’25€47.80
€49.38
+3.3%
5.2%€53.39€45.98n/a7
Feb ’25€47.80
€49.59
+3.7%
9.9%€58.81€42.27n/a7
Jan ’25€48.60
€45.05
-7.3%
6.0%€49.94€41.77n/a6
Dec ’24€43.40
€44.73
+3.1%
3.3%€47.29€42.91n/a6
Nov ’24€39.05
€45.96
+17.7%
3.2%€48.67€44.16€57.506
Oct ’24€42.67
€47.29
+10.8%
4.1%€50.77€44.42€53.006
Sep ’24€42.67
€45.93
+7.6%
5.3%€48.84€41.86€57.006
Aug ’24€45.71
€45.79
+0.2%
5.6%€48.38€41.47€59.506
Jul ’24€42.67
€47.41
+11.1%
8.3%€53.23€41.88€51.506
Jun ’24€42.29
€49.70
+17.5%
7.7%€53.51€42.10€51.006
May ’24€47.24
€50.35
+6.6%
6.5%€52.95€43.40€51.006
Apr ’24€50.48
€59.70
+18.3%
4.1%€63.22€56.19€48.806
Mar ’24€59.05
€60.96
+3.2%
3.1%€63.92€57.70€47.806
Feb ’24€58.10
€60.08
+3.4%
3.2%€63.15€57.01€47.806
Jan ’24€60.95
€61.75
+1.3%
3.3%€64.60€58.32€48.607
Dec ’23€68.10
€61.68
-9.4%
4.9%€65.49€56.01€43.406
Nov ’23€64.40
€63.13
-2.0%
4.6%€68.38€58.48€39.056

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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