Banco BPM Valuation

Is BPM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BPM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BPM (€5.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€10.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BPM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BPM?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BPM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio-1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BPM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BPM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.9x
CBK Commerzbank
7.4x6.5%€16.3b
PCZ ProCredit Holding
4.8x10.1%€566.6m
MBK Merkur PrivatBank KgaA
9x4.0%€119.8m
DIB Dubai Islamic Bank P.J.S.C
6.2x-2.3%د.إ40.4b
BPM Banco BPM
6.5x-4.9%€8.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BPM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.5x) compared to the peer average (6.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BPM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a0.4%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a0.4%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BPM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.5x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BPM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BPM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.5x
Fair PE Ratio7.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BPM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BPM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€5.80
€6.98
+20.4%
10.1%€8.00€5.30n/a15
Jun ’25€6.59
€6.94
+5.3%
9.8%€8.00€5.30n/a15
May ’25€6.15
€6.55
+6.5%
11.1%€7.80€4.90n/a15
Apr ’25€6.17
€6.20
+0.5%
12.4%€7.55€4.60n/a15
Mar ’25€5.38
€6.06
+12.5%
11.4%€7.00€4.60n/a15
Feb ’25€4.96
€5.94
+19.8%
12.4%€7.00€4.50n/a14
Jan ’25€4.75
€6.13
+29.1%
10.4%€7.19€4.60n/a14
Dec ’24€5.08
€6.37
+25.5%
7.2%€7.21€5.50n/a14
Nov ’24€4.90
€6.01
+22.6%
11.9%€7.19€4.80n/a14
Oct ’24€4.64
€5.91
+27.3%
12.6%€7.00€4.60n/a13
Sep ’24€4.45
€5.93
+33.4%
11.5%€7.00€4.80n/a14
Aug ’24€4.54
€5.67
+24.9%
11.1%€6.60€4.30n/a14
Jul ’24€4.19
€5.61
+33.7%
11.4%€6.60€4.30n/a14
Jun ’24€3.67
€5.65
+53.7%
8.9%€6.60€4.90€6.5913
May ’24€3.67
€5.21
+41.9%
9.7%€6.00€4.30€6.1513
Apr ’24€3.63
€5.16
+41.9%
9.4%€5.81€4.30€6.1713
Mar ’24€4.10
€5.19
+26.3%
9.6%€5.81€4.30€5.3813
Feb ’24€4.11
€4.55
+10.7%
9.9%€5.20€4.00€4.9613
Jan ’24€3.33
€4.18
+25.7%
8.6%€4.90€3.65€4.7513
Dec ’23€3.34
€4.15
+24.4%
9.9%€4.90€3.30€5.0813
Nov ’23€3.07
€3.79
+23.5%
9.4%€4.40€3.25€4.9014
Oct ’23€2.64
€3.83
+45.2%
9.5%€4.40€3.25€4.6414
Sep ’23€2.45
€3.82
+55.8%
9.2%€4.40€3.25€4.4515
Aug ’23€2.49
€3.79
+52.1%
11.3%€5.00€3.30€4.5415
Jul ’23€2.67
€4.02
+50.7%
11.0%€5.20€3.60€4.1914
Jun ’23€3.24
€3.98
+22.9%
8.2%€4.60€3.60€3.6714

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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