Stock Analysis

Institutional owners may ignore Aareal Bank AG's (ETR:ARL) recent €51m market cap decline as longer-term profits stay in the green

XTRA:ARLN
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To get a sense of who is truly in control of Aareal Bank AG (ETR:ARL), it is important to understand the ownership structure of the business. And the group that holds the biggest piece of the pie are institutions with 62% ownership. That is, the group stands to benefit the most if the stock rises (or lose the most if there is a downturn).

Institutional investors was the group most impacted after the company's market cap fell to €1.7b last week. However, the 41% one-year return to shareholders may have helped lessen their pain. But they would probably be wary of future losses.

Let's take a closer look to see what the different types of shareholders can tell us about Aareal Bank.

See our latest analysis for Aareal Bank

ownership-breakdown
XTRA:ARL Ownership Breakdown January 16th 2022

What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Aareal Bank?

Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.

Aareal Bank already has institutions on the share registry. Indeed, they own a respectable stake in the company. This implies the analysts working for those institutions have looked at the stock and they like it. But just like anyone else, they could be wrong. It is not uncommon to see a big share price drop if two large institutional investors try to sell out of a stock at the same time. So it is worth checking the past earnings trajectory of Aareal Bank, (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider, too.

earnings-and-revenue-growth
XTRA:ARL Earnings and Revenue Growth January 16th 2022

Institutional investors own over 50% of the company, so together than can probably strongly influence board decisions. Our data indicates that hedge funds own 10% of Aareal Bank. That worth noting, since hedge funds are often quite active investors, who may try to influence management. Many want to see value creation (and a higher share price) in the short term or medium term. Morgan Stanley, Investment Banking and Brokerage Investments is currently the company's largest shareholder with 10% of shares outstanding. For context, the second largest shareholder holds about 6.5% of the shares outstanding, followed by an ownership of 5.4% by the third-largest shareholder.

Looking at the shareholder registry, we can see that 51% of the ownership is controlled by the top 11 shareholders, meaning that no single shareholder has a majority interest in the ownership.

Researching institutional ownership is a good way to gauge and filter a stock's expected performance. The same can be achieved by studying analyst sentiments. There are a reasonable number of analysts covering the stock, so it might be useful to find out their aggregate view on the future.

Insider Ownership Of Aareal Bank

While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. The company management answer to the board and the latter should represent the interests of shareholders. Notably, sometimes top-level managers are on the board themselves.

Insider ownership is positive when it signals leadership are thinking like the true owners of the company. However, high insider ownership can also give immense power to a small group within the company. This can be negative in some circumstances.

Our data cannot confirm that board members are holding shares personally. It is unusual not to have at least some personal holdings by board members, so our data might be flawed. A good next step would be to check how much the CEO is paid.

General Public Ownership

The general public-- including retail investors -- own 22% stake in the company, and hence can't easily be ignored. While this size of ownership may not be enough to sway a policy decision in their favour, they can still make a collective impact on company policies.

Private Company Ownership

It seems that Private Companies own 6.5%, of the Aareal Bank stock. It might be worth looking deeper into this. If related parties, such as insiders, have an interest in one of these private companies, that should be disclosed in the annual report. Private companies may also have a strategic interest in the company.

Next Steps:

While it is well worth considering the different groups that own a company, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Aareal Bank that you should be aware of.

If you would prefer discover what analysts are predicting in terms of future growth, do not miss this free report on analyst forecasts.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About XTRA:ARLN

Aareal Bank

Provides financing, software products, digital solutions, and payment transaction applications for the property sector and related industries in Germany, rest of Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific.

Reasonable growth potential with proven track record.