Horizon Bancorp, Inc.

BST:4WC Stock Report

Market Cap: €560.7m

Horizon Bancorp Valuation

Is 4WC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4WC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€33.78
Fair Value
63.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
5
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 4WC (€12.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€33.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4WC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4WC?

Key metric: As 4WC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4WC. This is calculated by dividing 4WC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4WC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14x
EarningsUS$45.38m
Market CapUS$637.52m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4WC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4WC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.7x
PCZ ProCredit Holding
5.5x14.4%€574.8m
MBK Merkur PrivatBank KgaA
8.4x5.2%€115.9m
BSLI4 BRB - Banco de Brasília
18.7xn/aR$3.6b
FMBL Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach
14.3xn/aUS$695.4m
4WC Horizon Bancorp
14x29.3%€637.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4WC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the peer average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4WC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4WC 14.0xIndustry Avg. 8.5xNo. of Companies49PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4WC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the European Banks industry average (8.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4WC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4WC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14x
Fair PE Ratio12.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4WC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4WC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€12.50
€15.83
+26.6%
6.1%€17.59€14.95n/a5
Apr ’26€13.70
€18.97
+38.5%
3.0%€19.74€18.30n/a5
Mar ’26€15.70
€18.97
+20.8%
3.0%€19.74€18.30n/a5
Feb ’26€16.00
€18.59
+16.2%
3.2%€19.54€18.11n/a5
Jan ’26€15.10
€19.07
+26.3%
5.5%€20.98€18.12n/a5
Dec ’25€17.30
€18.43
+6.5%
9.6%€20.90€16.15n/a5
Nov ’25€14.60
€16.92
+15.9%
4.1%€17.57€15.72n/a5
Oct ’25€13.30
€15.72
+18.2%
5.1%€16.61€14.37n/a5
Sep ’25€14.10
€16.05
+13.8%
5.5%€17.09€14.78n/a4
Aug ’25€14.50
€16.05
+10.7%
5.5%€17.09€14.78n/a4
Jul ’25€11.40
€13.39
+17.4%
6.7%€14.44€12.11n/a4
Jun ’25€10.90
€13.44
+23.3%
6.7%€14.49€12.15n/a4
May ’25€10.60
€13.44
+26.8%
6.7%€14.49€12.15n/a4
Apr ’25€11.50
€13.73
+19.4%
6.9%€15.23€12.93€13.704
Mar ’25€11.00
€14.08
+28.0%
5.9%€15.36€13.03€15.704
Feb ’25€12.00
€14.20
+18.3%
6.2%€15.23€12.93€16.004
Jan ’25€12.90
€13.29
+3.0%
12.2%€15.00€10.91€15.104
Dec ’24€9.85
€10.83
+10.0%
7.5%€11.30€9.42€17.304
Nov ’24€8.80
€10.83
+23.1%
7.5%€11.30€9.42€14.604
Oct ’24€9.75
€12.66
+29.8%
6.1%€13.25€11.35€13.304
Sep ’24€10.20
€12.63
+23.9%
1.6%€12.75€12.29€14.104
Aug ’24€11.10
€12.63
+13.8%
1.6%€12.75€12.29€14.504
Jul ’24€9.75
€11.68
+19.8%
7.7%€12.77€10.03€11.405
Jun ’24€8.35
€11.85
+41.9%
4.9%€12.76€10.94€10.905
May ’24€9.50
€11.85
+24.7%
4.9%€12.76€10.94€10.605
Apr ’24n/a
€15.12
0%
14.2%€16.59€11.06€11.505
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts
€15.45
Fair Value
19.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
5
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/27 07:05
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/25 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. is covered by 8 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brian MartinFIG Partners
Brendan NosalHovde Group, LLC
Brian MartinJanney Montgomery Scott LLC