We Think Continental (FRA:CON) In Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

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Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, ‘The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about… and every practical investor I know worries about.’ It’s only natural to consider a company’s balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Continental Aktiengesellschaft (FRA:CON) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of ‘creative destruction’ where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well – and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

View our latest analysis for Continental

How Much Debt Does Continental Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2019 Continental had €6.31b of debt, an increase on €4.46b, over one year. On the flip side, it has €1.92b in cash leading to net debt of about €4.39b.

DB:CON Historical Debt, July 11th 2019
DB:CON Historical Debt, July 11th 2019

A Look At Continental’s Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, Continental had liabilities of €16.8b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €7.73b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had €1.92b in cash and €8.93b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €13.7b.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Continental has a huge market capitalization of €24.1b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. Because it carries more debt than cash, we think it’s worth watching Continental’s balance sheet over time.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Continental’s net debt is only 0.99 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 29.6 times the size. So we’re pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Continental if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 41% cut to EBIT over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Continental can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you’re focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Continental recorded free cash flow worth 50% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Neither Continental’s ability to grow its EBIT nor its level of total liabilities gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Continental’s debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn’t really want to see it increase from here. Given Continental has a strong balance sheet is profitable and pays a dividend, it would be good to know how fast its dividends are growing, if at all. You can find out instantly by clicking this link.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don’t even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.