Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft

DB:BMW Stock Report

Market Cap: €42.9b

Bayerische Motoren Werke Valuation

Is BMW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BMW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BMW (€68.44) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€120.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BMW is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BMW?

Key metric: As BMW is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BMW. This is calculated by dividing BMW's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BMW's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5.3x
Earnings€8.18b
Market Cap€42.87b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BMW's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BMW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.2x
VOW3 Volkswagen
3.4x9.6%€42.8b
MBG Mercedes-Benz Group
4.6x1.7%€51.0b
P911 Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche
14x11.3%€56.8b
PAH3 Porsche Automobil Holding
2.8x18.5%€10.8b
BMW Bayerische Motoren Werke
5.3x5.6%€42.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BMW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.3x) compared to the peer average (6.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BMW's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BMW 5.3xIndustry Avg. 14.7xNo. of Companies17PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BMW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.3x) compared to the Global Auto industry average (14.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BMW's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BMW PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.3x
Fair PE Ratio7.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BMW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BMW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€69.26
€89.31
+28.9%
20.9%€154.00€60.00n/a22
Nov ’25€73.16
€93.56
+27.9%
19.7%€154.00€70.00n/a21
Oct ’25€77.74
€94.35
+21.4%
18.8%€154.00€74.00n/a22
Sep ’25€83.68
€107.29
+28.2%
16.3%€166.00€80.00n/a22
Aug ’25€83.14
€110.70
+33.1%
15.3%€166.00€84.00n/a22
Jul ’25€89.20
€113.10
+26.8%
14.4%€166.00€84.00n/a22
Jun ’25€93.42
€113.38
+21.4%
14.0%€166.00€90.00n/a22
May ’25€102.70
€112.92
+10.0%
14.0%€165.00€90.00n/a22
Apr ’25€107.10
€111.98
+4.6%
14.4%€165.00€85.00n/a22
Mar ’25€109.44
€110.22
+0.7%
14.5%€163.00€85.00n/a23
Feb ’25€97.65
€110.00
+12.6%
14.4%€163.00€85.00n/a23
Jan ’25€100.80
€109.45
+8.6%
14.7%€163.00€85.00n/a22
Dec ’24€96.18
€109.57
+13.9%
15.2%€163.00€85.00n/a21
Nov ’24€89.44
€111.88
+25.1%
13.1%€160.00€90.00€73.1621
Oct ’24€96.46
€112.45
+16.6%
13.1%€160.00€90.00€77.7421
Sep ’24€94.38
€113.64
+20.4%
12.5%€160.00€90.00€83.6821
Aug ’24€105.14
€114.38
+8.8%
12.7%€157.00€94.00€83.1420
Jul ’24€112.30
€112.73
+0.4%
13.5%€157.00€88.00€89.2020
Jun ’24€103.38
€110.56
+6.9%
14.8%€157.00€85.00€93.4221
May ’24€101.96
€107.89
+5.8%
15.2%€157.00€85.00€102.7021
Apr ’24€101.12
€105.89
+4.7%
15.9%€156.00€78.00€107.1021
Mar ’24€99.60
€103.09
+3.5%
15.6%€152.00€78.00€109.4421
Feb ’24€95.77
€102.13
+6.6%
16.2%€152.00€78.00€97.6521
Jan ’24€83.37
€98.80
+18.5%
19.0%€152.00€70.00€100.8021
Dec ’23€85.40
€99.18
+16.1%
19.9%€152.00€70.00€96.1821
Nov ’23€80.57
€99.40
+23.4%
19.3%€150.00€70.00€89.4422

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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