Earnings Update: SAF-Holland SE (ETR:SFQ) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that SAF-Holland SE (ETR:SFQ) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.3% to €17.00 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of €505m and statutory earnings per share of €0.58. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on SAF-Holland after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for SAF-Holland

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering SAF-Holland, is for revenues of €2.02b in 2024. This implies a small 5.3% reduction in SAF-Holland's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 9.3% to €2.09. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €2.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.01 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at €23.70, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic SAF-Holland analyst has a price target of €31.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €19.50. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await SAF-Holland shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.0% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - SAF-Holland is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around SAF-Holland's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €23.70, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for SAF-Holland going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that SAF-Holland is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.