Shell Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of SHELL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SHELL (CZK782.1) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CZK852.09)

Is SHELL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SHELL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SHELL (CZK782.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CZK852.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SHELL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SHELL?

Key metric: As SHELL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SHELL. This is calculated by dividing SHELL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SHELL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	12.8x
Earnings	US$15.64b
Market Cap	US$200.77b

SHELL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.6x
PEG Ratio	2.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SHELL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SHELL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	10.1x
857 PetroChina	5.8x	-3.8%	HK$1.5t
CVX Chevron	17.3x	7.0%	US$291.8b
TTE TotalEnergies	7.9x	0.07%	€127.4b
386 China Petroleum & Chemical	9.5x	9.5%	HK$761.7b
SHELL Shell	12.8x	5.0%	Kč160.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SHELL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the peer average (10.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SHELL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

5 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SHELL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (9.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SHELL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SHELL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	12.8x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SHELL's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SHELL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	Kč782.10	Kč968.00 +23.8%	8.3%	Kč1,111.44	Kč795.43	n/a	15
Nov ’25	Kč800.30	Kč951.59 +18.9%	7.3%	Kč1,083.42	Kč844.05	n/a	15
Oct ’25	Kč747.00	Kč957.40 +28.2%	8.9%	Kč1,156.83	Kč822.57	n/a	16
Sep ’25	Kč807.80	Kč958.51 +18.7%	8.4%	Kč1,155.10	Kč825.92	n/a	15
Aug ’25	Kč882.40	Kč989.34 +12.1%	8.5%	Kč1,198.26	Kč853.90	n/a	15
Jul ’25	Kč830.60	Kč963.97 +16.1%	7.7%	Kč1,112.37	Kč852.73	n/a	15
Jun ’25	Kč800.00	Kč927.58 +15.9%	8.1%	Kč1,078.14	Kč826.49	n/a	15
May ’25	Kč871.00	Kč923.96 +6.1%	8.9%	Kč1,130.55	Kč805.14	n/a	15
Apr ’25	Kč771.40	Kč902.34 +17.0%	9.7%	Kč1,136.37	Kč766.03	n/a	15
Mar ’25	Kč732.90	Kč889.12 +21.3%	10.4%	Kč1,127.16	Kč759.81	n/a	15
Feb ’25	Kč710.00	Kč881.35 +24.1%	10.0%	Kč1,103.80	Kč750.72	n/a	15
Jan ’25	Kč730.00	Kč852.85 +16.8%	10.5%	Kč1,050.84	Kč697.97	n/a	15
Dec ’24	Kč740.50	Kč837.27 +13.1%	10.0%	Kč1,040.31	Kč690.97	n/a	15
Nov ’24	Kč759.50	Kč848.43 +11.7%	10.7%	Kč1,080.32	Kč713.10	Kč800.30	15
Oct ’24	Kč734.50	Kč842.34 +14.7%	9.2%	Kč1,033.57	Kč712.40	Kč747.00	16
Sep ’24	Kč689.70	Kč812.47 +17.8%	9.3%	Kč999.25	Kč688.74	Kč807.80	16
Aug ’24	Kč661.90	Kč797.12 +20.4%	10.5%	Kč978.21	Kč663.04	Kč882.40	18
Jul ’24	Kč625.30	Kč794.60 +27.1%	9.5%	Kč974.80	Kč665.98	Kč830.60	19
Jun ’24	Kč645.00	Kč788.53 +22.3%	9.3%	Kč913.13	Kč631.46	Kč800.00	20
May ’24	Kč650.50	Kč762.89 +17.3%	8.4%	Kč874.37	Kč637.69	Kč871.00	21
Apr ’24	Kč589.80	Kč766.81 +30.0%	9.9%	Kč923.67	Kč611.16	Kč771.40	21
Mar ’24	Kč680.00	Kč776.79 +14.2%	10.0%	Kč947.17	Kč618.18	Kč732.90	20
Feb ’24	Kč651.00	Kč781.24 +20.0%	10.2%	Kč948.04	Kč618.75	Kč710.00	21
Jan ’24	Kč630.50	Kč807.35 +28.0%	9.7%	Kč990.66	Kč643.57	Kč730.00	20
Dec ’23	Kč690.00	Kč803.25 +16.4%	8.6%	Kč929.85	Kč654.28	Kč740.50	20
Nov ’23	Kč689.00	Kč845.70 +22.7%	8.9%	Kč1,005.40	Kč699.36	Kč759.50	20

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.