Orlen S.A.

SEP:PKN Stock Report

Market Cap: Kč342.7b

Orlen Valuation

Is PKN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PKN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
Kč613.31
Fair Value
51.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: PKN (CZK297) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CZK613.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PKN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PKN?

Key metric: As PKN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PKN. This is calculated by dividing PKN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PKN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.6x
Earningszł3.75b
Market Capzł58.35b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PKN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PKN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.2x
5020 ENEOS Holdings
12x12.3%JP¥2.2t
BPCL Bharat Petroleum
9.2x4.8%₹1.2t
TUPRS Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri
6.3x-1.1%₺276.5b
NESTE Neste Oyj
21.5x49.4%€9.4b
PKN Orlen
15.6x13.4%Kč58.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PKN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the peer average (12.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PKN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PKN 15.6xIndustry Avg. 8.4xNo. of Companies17PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PKN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PKN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PKN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.6x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PKN's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PKN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentKč297.00
Kč430.31
+44.9%
15.6%Kč552.51Kč361.17n/a10
Jan ’26Kč280.00
Kč431.85
+54.2%
15.6%Kč554.48Kč362.46n/a10
Dec ’25Kč304.05
Kč443.45
+45.8%
18.3%Kč619.70Kč361.69n/a10
Nov ’25Kč312.00
Kč440.85
+41.3%
17.7%Kč612.69Kč357.60n/a10
Oct ’25Kč334.80
Kč465.12
+38.9%
14.8%Kč617.51Kč386.20n/a10
Sep ’25Kč376.00
Kč464.57
+23.6%
11.8%Kč562.51Kč391.28n/a10
Aug ’25Kč383.50
Kč464.57
+21.1%
11.8%Kč562.51Kč391.28n/a10
Jul ’25Kč399.00
Kč458.78
+15.0%
12.0%Kč550.62Kč383.00n/a9
Jun ’25Kč371.85
Kč457.77
+23.1%
12.0%Kč549.41Kč382.16n/a9
May ’25Kč394.55
Kč472.25
+19.7%
11.0%Kč556.19Kč419.76n/a8
Apr ’25Kč384.80
Kč472.25
+22.7%
11.0%Kč556.19Kč419.76n/a8
Mar ’25Kč373.10
Kč455.73
+22.1%
13.0%Kč548.71Kč389.22n/a8
Feb ’25Kč374.00
Kč455.73
+21.9%
13.0%Kč548.71Kč389.22n/a8
Jan ’25Kč381.20
Kč453.13
+18.9%
17.7%Kč596.41Kč363.53Kč280.008
Dec ’24Kč336.00
Kč449.84
+33.9%
17.5%Kč589.31Kč359.20Kč304.058
Nov ’24Kč367.50
Kč445.82
+21.3%
18.0%Kč579.01Kč352.92Kč312.009
Oct ’24Kč314.00
Kč401.68
+27.9%
15.8%Kč506.30Kč318.10Kč334.809
Sep ’24Kč348.20
Kč415.65
+19.4%
15.0%Kč514.63Kč323.33Kč376.009
Aug ’24Kč380.90
Kč424.23
+11.4%
15.6%Kč539.21Kč328.59Kč383.509
Jul ’24Kč346.60
Kč418.71
+20.8%
13.8%Kč535.89Kč326.89Kč399.0010
Jun ’24Kč321.30
Kč404.56
+25.9%
13.3%Kč522.73Kč318.86Kč371.8511
May ’24Kč328.60
Kč393.93
+19.9%
14.2%Kč511.39Kč291.49Kč394.5511
Apr ’24Kč294.00
Kč387.09
+31.7%
14.9%Kč505.23Kč287.98Kč384.8011
Mar ’24Kč335.00
Kč409.04
+22.1%
14.0%Kč508.07Kč304.84Kč373.1010
Feb ’24Kč322.00
Kč409.04
+27.0%
14.0%Kč508.07Kč304.84Kč374.0010
Jan ’24Kč332.00
Kč433.87
+30.7%
11.2%Kč518.31Kč347.27Kč381.209
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts
Kč432.99
Fair Value
31.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/10 05:49
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/10 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Orlen S.A. is covered by 26 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Robert BateBarclays
Yuriy KukhtanychBerenberg
Kamil KliszczBiuro maklerskie mBanku