Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that TOMA, a.s. (SEP:TOMA) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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What Is TOMA's Debt?
As you can see below, TOMA had Kč673.3m of debt at December 2020, down from Kč727.6m a year prior. On the flip side, it has Kč315.6m in cash leading to net debt of about Kč357.8m.
A Look At TOMA's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that TOMA had liabilities of Kč370.2m due within a year, and liabilities of Kč655.7m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had Kč315.6m in cash and Kč392.9m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling Kč317.4m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Given TOMA has a market capitalization of Kč1.71b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 1.1 and interest cover of 5.2 times, it seems to us that TOMA is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Notably, TOMA's EBIT launched higher than Elon Musk, gaining a whopping 119% on last year. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since TOMA will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, TOMA saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
Based on what we've seen TOMA is not finding it easy, given its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. In particular, we are dazzled with its EBIT growth rate. Considering this range of data points, we think TOMA is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for TOMA that you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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About SEP:TOMA
TOMA
Engages in the electricity, air, water, steam, and gas distribution businesses in the Czech Republic.
Flawless balance sheet with solid track record.