Earnings growth of 16% over 3 years hasn't been enough to translate into positive returns for Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology (SZSE:300335) shareholders

While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300335) share price has gained 26% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. Truth be told the share price declined 21% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

View our latest analysis for Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 56% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

With revenue flat over three years, it seems unlikely that the share price is reflecting the top line. We're not entirely sure why the share price is dropped, but it does seem likely investors have become less optimistic about the business.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology the TSR over the last 3 years was -17%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 14% in the last year, Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology shareholders lost 6.4% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.0% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.