Xinjiang Tianfu Energy (SHSE:600509) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600509) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for Xinjiang Tianfu Energy

How Much Debt Does Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Carry?

As you can see below, Xinjiang Tianfu Energy had CN¥9.65b of debt at March 2024, down from CN¥11.8b a year prior. However, it also had CN¥1.37b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥8.28b.

A Look At Xinjiang Tianfu Energy's Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Xinjiang Tianfu Energy had liabilities of CN¥7.59b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥7.90b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.37b and CN¥3.21b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥10.9b.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's CN¥7.47b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

While Xinjiang Tianfu Energy's debt to EBITDA ratio (4.1) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 2.3, suggesting high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. On a slightly more positive note, Xinjiang Tianfu Energy grew its EBIT at 12% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Xinjiang Tianfu Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last two years, Xinjiang Tianfu Energy produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 55% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

To be frank both Xinjiang Tianfu Energy's interest cover and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. It's also worth noting that Xinjiang Tianfu Energy is in the Electric Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Xinjiang Tianfu Energy has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Xinjiang Tianfu Energy (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant) .

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com