Juneyao Airlines Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 603885 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

603885 (CN¥13.62) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥22.95)

Is 603885 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 603885 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 603885 (CN¥13.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥22.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 603885 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 603885?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 603885. This is calculated by dividing 603885's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 603885's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥29.83b

603885 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	17.3x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 603885's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 603885 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	24.1x
600221 Hainan Airlines Holding	43.4x	n/a	CN¥55.9b
601021 Spring Airlines	21.7x	17.6%	CN¥60.4b
603871 Jiayou International LogisticsLtd	17.1x	24.6%	CN¥22.1b
600350 Shandong Hi-speed	14.1x	9.0%	CN¥44.7b
603885 Juneyao Airlines	25.7x	36.0%	CN¥29.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 603885 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x) compared to the peer average (24.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 603885's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Airlines Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	18.2%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	18.2%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 603885 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x) compared to the Asian Airlines industry average (9.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 603885's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

603885 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	25.7x
Fair PE Ratio	29.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 603885 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 603885 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥13.62	CN¥15.03 +10.4%	19.8%	CN¥19.75	CN¥10.40	n/a	5
Sep ’25	CN¥10.49	CN¥15.73 +50.0%	13.2%	CN¥19.75	CN¥13.90	n/a	5
Aug ’25	CN¥11.27	CN¥17.16 +52.3%	13.8%	CN¥20.50	CN¥13.90	n/a	5
Jul ’25	CN¥11.23	CN¥17.16 +52.8%	13.8%	CN¥20.50	CN¥13.90	n/a	5
Jun ’25	CN¥12.41	CN¥17.16 +38.3%	13.8%	CN¥20.50	CN¥13.90	n/a	5
May ’25	CN¥12.31	CN¥17.75 +44.2%	14.2%	CN¥20.70	CN¥13.90	n/a	6
Apr ’25	CN¥12.80	CN¥22.18 +73.3%	17.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	n/a	6
Mar ’25	CN¥12.98	CN¥22.18 +70.9%	17.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	n/a	6
Feb ’25	CN¥11.65	CN¥22.18 +90.4%	17.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	n/a	6
Jan ’25	CN¥12.00	CN¥22.18 +84.9%	17.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	n/a	6
Dec ’24	CN¥13.10	CN¥22.18 +69.3%	17.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	n/a	6
Nov ’24	CN¥14.22	CN¥22.48 +58.1%	19.1%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	n/a	5
Oct ’24	CN¥14.30	CN¥23.66 +65.5%	11.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥19.30	CN¥13.62	5
Sep ’24	CN¥16.02	CN¥23.66 +47.7%	11.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥19.30	CN¥10.49	5
Aug ’24	CN¥17.91	CN¥23.01 +28.5%	11.9%	CN¥26.00	CN¥19.30	CN¥11.27	4
Jul ’24	CN¥15.43	CN¥22.16 +43.6%	18.0%	CN¥26.00	CN¥15.90	CN¥11.23	4
Jun ’24	CN¥15.04	CN¥22.16 +47.4%	18.0%	CN¥26.00	CN¥15.90	CN¥12.41	4
May ’24	CN¥17.93	CN¥22.16 +23.6%	18.0%	CN¥26.00	CN¥15.90	CN¥12.31	4
Apr ’24	CN¥17.98	CN¥17.05 -5.2%	4.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥15.90	CN¥12.80	4
Mar ’24	CN¥18.00	CN¥17.05 -5.3%	4.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥15.90	CN¥12.98	4
Feb ’24	CN¥15.17	CN¥17.05 +12.4%	4.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥15.90	CN¥11.65	4
Jan ’24	CN¥16.18	CN¥16.16 -0.1%	11.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥12.60	CN¥12.00	5
Dec ’23	CN¥14.97	CN¥16.16 +7.9%	11.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥12.60	CN¥13.10	5
Nov ’23	CN¥14.84	CN¥16.16 +8.9%	11.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥12.60	CN¥14.22	5
Oct ’23	CN¥15.14	CN¥17.22 +13.7%	15.0%	CN¥20.40	CN¥12.60	CN¥14.30	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.