China Express AirlinesLTD Valuation

Is 002928 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 002928 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 002928 (CN¥8.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥43.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 002928 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 002928?

Key metric: As 002928 is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 002928. This is calculated by dividing 002928's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 002928's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	1.7x
Sales	CN¥6.45b
Market Cap	CN¥10.80b

002928 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	29.3x
PEG Ratio	3.5x

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 002928's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 002928 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1.5x
603885 Juneyao Airlines	1.4x	12.0%	CN¥30.4b
601021 Spring Airlines	2.9x	13.3%	CN¥56.7b
600221 Hainan Airlines Holding	1.2x	n/a	CN¥77.0b
600115 China Eastern Airlines	0.7x	6.3%	CN¥79.1b
002928 China Express AirlinesLTD	1.7x	21.3%	CN¥10.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 002928 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the peer average (1.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 002928's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Airlines Industry?

4 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

4 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 002928 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the Asian Airlines industry average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 002928's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

002928 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	1.7x
Fair PS Ratio	1.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 002928 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 002928 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥8.45	CN¥9.95 +17.8%	9.7%	CN¥11.00	CN¥8.80	n/a	4
Nov ’25	CN¥7.86	CN¥8.93 +13.5%	17.1%	CN¥11.00	CN¥6.70	n/a	4
Oct ’25	CN¥7.21	CN¥7.70 +6.8%	9.8%	CN¥8.80	CN¥6.70	n/a	4
Sep ’25	CN¥5.76	CN¥7.70 +33.7%	9.8%	CN¥8.80	CN¥6.70	n/a	4
Aug ’25	CN¥6.35	CN¥8.38 +31.9%	12.3%	CN¥9.50	CN¥6.70	n/a	4
Jul ’25	CN¥6.39	CN¥8.38 +31.1%	12.3%	CN¥9.50	CN¥6.70	n/a	4
Jun ’25	CN¥7.11	CN¥8.38 +17.8%	12.3%	CN¥9.50	CN¥6.70	n/a	4
May ’25	CN¥6.56	CN¥8.12 +23.8%	12.7%	CN¥9.12	CN¥6.20	n/a	5
Apr ’25	CN¥5.94	CN¥8.53 +43.6%	14.8%	CN¥10.00	CN¥6.20	n/a	5
Mar ’25	CN¥5.61	CN¥8.68 +54.6%	11.0%	CN¥10.00	CN¥6.80	n/a	6
Feb ’25	CN¥5.41	CN¥8.68 +60.4%	11.0%	CN¥10.00	CN¥6.80	n/a	6
Jan ’25	CN¥7.14	CN¥8.68 +21.5%	11.0%	CN¥10.00	CN¥6.80	n/a	6
Dec ’24	CN¥7.56	CN¥8.59 +13.6%	11.9%	CN¥10.00	CN¥6.80	n/a	5
Nov ’24	CN¥7.10	CN¥8.59 +20.9%	11.9%	CN¥10.00	CN¥6.80	CN¥7.86	5
Oct ’24	CN¥7.23	CN¥10.51 +45.4%	17.6%	CN¥14.00	CN¥8.79	CN¥7.21	5
Sep ’24	CN¥7.66	CN¥10.94 +42.8%	16.8%	CN¥14.00	CN¥9.10	CN¥5.76	4
Aug ’24	CN¥9.00	CN¥11.75 +30.6%	22.6%	CN¥14.40	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.35	2
Jul ’24	CN¥8.45	CN¥11.75 +39.1%	22.6%	CN¥14.40	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.39	2
Jun ’24	CN¥9.40	CN¥13.60 +44.7%	5.9%	CN¥14.40	CN¥12.80	CN¥7.11	2
May ’24	CN¥10.83	CN¥14.00 +29.3%	8.6%	CN¥15.20	CN¥12.80	CN¥6.56	2
Apr ’24	CN¥11.64	CN¥11.50 -1.2%	32.2%	CN¥15.20	CN¥7.80	CN¥5.94	2
Mar ’24	CN¥12.67	CN¥12.57 -0.8%	26.9%	CN¥15.20	CN¥7.80	CN¥5.61	3
Feb ’24	CN¥12.38	CN¥12.57 +1.5%	26.9%	CN¥15.20	CN¥7.80	CN¥5.41	3
Jan ’24	CN¥13.83	CN¥12.57 -9.1%	26.9%	CN¥15.20	CN¥7.80	CN¥7.14	3
Dec ’23	CN¥12.67	CN¥12.57 -0.8%	26.9%	CN¥15.20	CN¥7.80	CN¥7.56	3
Nov ’23	CN¥11.40	CN¥12.57 +10.2%	26.9%	CN¥15.20	CN¥7.80	CN¥7.10	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.