Juneyao Airlines Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 603885 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

603885 (CN¥14.03) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥13.14)

Is 603885 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 603885 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 603885 (CN¥14.03) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥13.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 603885 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 603885?

Key metric: As 603885 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 603885. This is calculated by dividing 603885's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 603885's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	35.4x
Earnings	CN¥868.12m
Market Cap	CN¥30.42b

603885 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.6x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 603885's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 603885 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	25.5x
601021 Spring Airlines	26.1x	26.9%	CN¥56.7b
600221 Hainan Airlines Holding	47x	n/a	CN¥77.0b
603871 Jiayou International LogisticsLtd	14.6x	24.1%	CN¥18.7b
600350 Shandong Hi-speed	14.3x	8.8%	CN¥44.8b
603885 Juneyao Airlines	35.4x	47.9%	CN¥30.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 603885 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.4x) compared to the peer average (25.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 603885's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Airlines Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 603885 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.4x) compared to the Asian Airlines industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 603885's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

603885 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	35.4x
Fair PE Ratio	33.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 603885 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 603885 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥14.03	CN¥14.99 +6.9%	19.4%	CN¥19.55	CN¥10.40	n/a	5
Nov ’25	CN¥12.72	CN¥14.99 +17.9%	19.4%	CN¥19.55	CN¥10.40	n/a	5
Oct ’25	CN¥13.62	CN¥15.03 +10.4%	19.8%	CN¥19.75	CN¥10.40	n/a	5
Sep ’25	CN¥10.49	CN¥15.73 +50.0%	13.2%	CN¥19.75	CN¥13.90	n/a	5
Aug ’25	CN¥11.27	CN¥17.16 +52.3%	13.8%	CN¥20.50	CN¥13.90	n/a	5
Jul ’25	CN¥11.23	CN¥17.16 +52.8%	13.8%	CN¥20.50	CN¥13.90	n/a	5
Jun ’25	CN¥12.41	CN¥17.16 +38.3%	13.8%	CN¥20.50	CN¥13.90	n/a	5
May ’25	CN¥12.31	CN¥17.75 +44.2%	14.2%	CN¥20.70	CN¥13.90	n/a	6
Apr ’25	CN¥12.80	CN¥22.18 +73.3%	17.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	n/a	6
Mar ’25	CN¥12.98	CN¥22.18 +70.9%	17.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	n/a	6
Feb ’25	CN¥11.65	CN¥22.18 +90.4%	17.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	n/a	6
Jan ’25	CN¥12.00	CN¥22.18 +84.9%	17.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	n/a	6
Dec ’24	CN¥13.10	CN¥22.18 +69.3%	17.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	n/a	6
Nov ’24	CN¥14.22	CN¥22.48 +58.1%	19.1%	CN¥26.60	CN¥14.70	CN¥12.72	5
Oct ’24	CN¥14.30	CN¥23.66 +65.5%	11.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥19.30	CN¥13.62	5
Sep ’24	CN¥16.02	CN¥23.66 +47.7%	11.9%	CN¥26.60	CN¥19.30	CN¥10.49	5
Aug ’24	CN¥17.91	CN¥23.01 +28.5%	11.9%	CN¥26.00	CN¥19.30	CN¥11.27	4
Jul ’24	CN¥15.43	CN¥22.16 +43.6%	18.0%	CN¥26.00	CN¥15.90	CN¥11.23	4
Jun ’24	CN¥15.04	CN¥22.16 +47.4%	18.0%	CN¥26.00	CN¥15.90	CN¥12.41	4
May ’24	CN¥17.93	CN¥22.16 +23.6%	18.0%	CN¥26.00	CN¥15.90	CN¥12.31	4
Apr ’24	CN¥17.98	CN¥17.05 -5.2%	4.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥15.90	CN¥12.80	4
Mar ’24	CN¥18.00	CN¥17.05 -5.3%	4.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥15.90	CN¥12.98	4
Feb ’24	CN¥15.17	CN¥17.05 +12.4%	4.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥15.90	CN¥11.65	4
Jan ’24	CN¥16.18	CN¥16.16 -0.1%	11.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥12.60	CN¥12.00	5
Dec ’23	CN¥14.97	CN¥16.16 +7.9%	11.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥12.60	CN¥13.10	5
Nov ’23	CN¥14.84	CN¥16.16 +8.9%	11.9%	CN¥18.25	CN¥12.60	CN¥14.22	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.