Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Valuation
Is 601816 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 601816 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 601816 (CN¥5.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥11.16)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 601816 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 601816?
Key metric: As 601816 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 601816's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 21.4x |
| Earnings | CN¥12.65b |
| Market Cap | CN¥270.58b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 8x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 13.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.8x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 601816's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 24x | ||
601006 Daqin Railway | 13x | 10.4% | CN¥122.0b |
001213 China Railway Special Cargo Logistics | 30.9x | n/a | CN¥18.7b |
000557 Ningxia Western Venture IndustrialLtd | 31.5x | n/a | CN¥8.5b |
600125 China Railway Tielong Container Logistics | 20.5x | 21.2% | CN¥8.2b |
601816 Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway | 21.4x | 11.6% | CN¥270.6b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 601816 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.4x) compared to the peer average (23.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 601816's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Transportation Industry?
| 5 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 601816 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.4x) compared to the Asian Transportation industry average (14.2x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 601816's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 21.4x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 25.1x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 601816 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | CN¥5.55 | CN¥6.40 +15.3% | 6.1% | CN¥7.00 | CN¥5.80 | n/a | 11 |
| Nov ’25 | CN¥5.54 | CN¥6.43 +16.0% | 6.4% | CN¥7.00 | CN¥5.80 | n/a | 11 |
| Oct ’25 | CN¥6.04 | CN¥6.52 +7.9% | 7.8% | CN¥7.44 | CN¥5.80 | n/a | 11 |
| Sep ’25 | CN¥5.43 | CN¥6.67 +22.9% | 8.3% | CN¥7.44 | CN¥5.87 | n/a | 11 |
| Aug ’25 | CN¥5.85 | CN¥6.63 +13.3% | 7.6% | CN¥7.40 | CN¥5.87 | n/a | 11 |
| Jul ’25 | CN¥5.42 | CN¥6.63 +22.3% | 7.4% | CN¥7.40 | CN¥5.87 | n/a | 10 |
| Jun ’25 | CN¥5.06 | CN¥6.63 +31.0% | 7.4% | CN¥7.40 | CN¥5.87 | n/a | 10 |
| May ’25 | CN¥5.09 | CN¥6.70 +31.7% | 7.5% | CN¥7.50 | CN¥6.10 | n/a | 9 |
| Apr ’25 | CN¥5.07 | CN¥6.74 +33.0% | 6.6% | CN¥7.50 | CN¥6.14 | n/a | 10 |
| Mar ’25 | CN¥5.00 | CN¥6.74 +34.9% | 6.6% | CN¥7.50 | CN¥6.14 | n/a | 10 |
| Feb ’25 | CN¥4.93 | CN¥6.67 +35.4% | 8.4% | CN¥7.50 | CN¥5.50 | n/a | 10 |
| Jan ’25 | CN¥4.92 | CN¥6.66 +35.4% | 8.1% | CN¥7.30 | CN¥5.50 | n/a | 10 |
| Dec ’24 | CN¥5.07 | CN¥6.66 +31.4% | 8.1% | CN¥7.30 | CN¥5.50 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’24 | CN¥4.97 | CN¥6.66 +34.1% | 8.1% | CN¥7.30 | CN¥5.50 | CN¥5.54 | 10 |
| Oct ’24 | CN¥5.13 | CN¥6.88 +34.1% | 8.7% | CN¥7.75 | CN¥5.50 | CN¥6.04 | 11 |
| Sep ’24 | CN¥5.14 | CN¥7.03 +36.8% | 9.7% | CN¥8.00 | CN¥5.50 | CN¥5.43 | 11 |
| Aug ’24 | CN¥5.53 | CN¥7.00 +26.5% | 9.6% | CN¥8.00 | CN¥5.50 | CN¥5.85 | 12 |
| Jul ’24 | CN¥5.26 | CN¥7.00 +33.1% | 9.5% | CN¥8.00 | CN¥5.50 | CN¥5.42 | 11 |
| Jun ’24 | CN¥5.47 | CN¥6.87 +25.6% | 10.6% | CN¥8.00 | CN¥5.50 | CN¥5.06 | 11 |
| May ’24 | CN¥5.43 | CN¥6.27 +15.4% | 11.6% | CN¥7.75 | CN¥5.39 | CN¥5.09 | 11 |
| Apr ’24 | CN¥5.22 | CN¥6.08 +16.5% | 9.6% | CN¥7.05 | CN¥5.39 | CN¥5.07 | 11 |
| Mar ’24 | CN¥5.24 | CN¥5.88 +12.1% | 9.1% | CN¥7.00 | CN¥5.30 | CN¥5.00 | 10 |
| Feb ’24 | CN¥4.92 | CN¥5.63 +14.3% | 13.0% | CN¥7.00 | CN¥4.00 | CN¥4.93 | 10 |
| Jan ’24 | CN¥4.92 | CN¥5.49 +11.7% | 12.5% | CN¥6.90 | CN¥4.00 | CN¥4.92 | 10 |
| Dec ’23 | CN¥4.87 | CN¥5.57 +14.5% | 12.7% | CN¥6.90 | CN¥4.00 | CN¥5.07 | 10 |
| Nov ’23 | CN¥4.68 | CN¥5.55 +18.6% | 12.8% | CN¥6.90 | CN¥4.00 | CN¥4.97 | 10 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.