Daqin Railway Valuation

Is 601006 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 601006 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 601006 (CN¥6.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥14.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 601006 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 601006?

Key metric: As 601006 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 601006. This is calculated by dividing 601006's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 601006's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	13.2x
Earnings	CN¥9.42b
Market Cap	CN¥124.34b

601006 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.1x
PEG Ratio	1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 601006's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 601006 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	26.6x
601816 Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway	22.2x	11.6%	CN¥281.4b
001213 China Railway Special Cargo Logistics	31.7x	n/a	CN¥19.3b
600125 China Railway Tielong Container Logistics	20.7x	21.2%	CN¥8.5b
000557 Ningxia Western Venture IndustrialLtd	31.8x	n/a	CN¥8.6b
601006 Daqin Railway	13.2x	10.4%	CN¥124.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 601006 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the peer average (26.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 601006's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Transportation Industry?

5 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

5 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 601006 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the Asian Transportation industry average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 601006's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

601006 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	13.2x
Fair PE Ratio	21.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 601006 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 601006 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥6.81	CN¥7.68 +12.8%	21.8%	CN¥11.90	CN¥5.50	n/a	9
Nov ’25	CN¥6.58	CN¥7.65 +16.2%	21.8%	CN¥11.90	CN¥5.50	n/a	9
Oct ’25	CN¥6.86	CN¥7.69 +12.1%	21.2%	CN¥11.90	CN¥5.60	n/a	9
Sep ’25	CN¥6.11	CN¥7.80 +27.7%	20.3%	CN¥11.90	CN¥5.60	n/a	9
Aug ’25	CN¥7.06	CN¥8.03 +13.7%	18.8%	CN¥11.90	CN¥6.00	n/a	9
Jul ’25	CN¥7.20	CN¥8.05 +11.8%	19.5%	CN¥11.90	CN¥6.00	n/a	9
Jun ’25	CN¥7.07	CN¥7.68 +8.6%	11.4%	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.00	n/a	8
May ’25	CN¥6.92	CN¥7.78 +12.4%	11.5%	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.00	n/a	8
Apr ’25	CN¥7.37	CN¥7.89 +7.1%	12.5%	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.10	n/a	7
Mar ’25	CN¥7.44	CN¥8.10 +8.8%	8.6%	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.90	n/a	7
Feb ’25	CN¥7.46	CN¥8.10 +8.5%	8.6%	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.90	n/a	7
Jan ’25	CN¥7.21	CN¥8.00 +11.0%	7.5%	CN¥8.70	CN¥6.90	n/a	7
Dec ’24	CN¥7.30	CN¥8.10 +11.0%	8.7%	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.90	n/a	7
Nov ’24	CN¥7.21	CN¥7.94 +10.1%	8.7%	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.90	CN¥6.58	8
Oct ’24	CN¥7.29	CN¥7.98 +9.4%	8.4%	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.90	CN¥6.86	8
Sep ’24	CN¥7.16	CN¥7.99 +11.6%	8.5%	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.90	CN¥6.11	8
Aug ’24	CN¥7.19	CN¥8.16 +13.6%	8.6%	CN¥9.10	CN¥6.90	CN¥7.06	9
Jul ’24	CN¥7.43	CN¥8.20 +10.3%	9.2%	CN¥9.40	CN¥6.90	CN¥7.20	9
Jun ’24	CN¥7.56	CN¥8.20 +8.4%	9.2%	CN¥9.40	CN¥6.90	CN¥7.07	9
May ’24	CN¥7.70	CN¥8.06 +4.7%	9.2%	CN¥9.40	CN¥6.90	CN¥6.92	9
Apr ’24	CN¥7.19	CN¥7.53 +4.7%	12.4%	CN¥9.40	CN¥6.20	CN¥7.37	9
Mar ’24	CN¥6.89	CN¥7.53 +9.3%	12.4%	CN¥9.40	CN¥6.20	CN¥7.44	9
Feb ’24	CN¥6.70	CN¥7.53 +12.4%	12.4%	CN¥9.40	CN¥6.20	CN¥7.46	9
Jan ’24	CN¥6.68	CN¥7.50 +12.2%	11.9%	CN¥9.40	CN¥6.20	CN¥7.21	10
Dec ’23	CN¥6.78	CN¥7.50 +10.6%	11.9%	CN¥9.40	CN¥6.20	CN¥7.30	10
Nov ’23	CN¥6.46	CN¥7.77 +20.2%	14.9%	CN¥9.90	CN¥6.20	CN¥7.21	10

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.