Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd.

SHSE:601816 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥297.6b

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Valuation

Is 601816 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 601816 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 601816 (CN¥6.06) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥11.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 601816 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 601816?

Key metric: As 601816 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 601816. This is calculated by dividing 601816's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 601816's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio23.5x
EarningsCN¥12.65b
Market CapCN¥297.59b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 601816's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 601816 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.7x
601006 Daqin Railway
13.2x10.6%CN¥124.7b
001213 China Railway Special Cargo Logistics
30.8xn/aCN¥18.8b
000557 Ningxia Western Venture IndustrialLtd
31.1xn/aCN¥8.4b
600125 China Railway Tielong Container Logistics
19.5x21.2%CN¥8.0b
601816 Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway
23.5x11.5%CN¥297.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 601816 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.5x) compared to the peer average (23.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 601816's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Transportation Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
601816 23.5xIndustry Avg. 13.2xNo. of Companies24PE01020304050+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 601816 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.5x) compared to the Asian Transportation industry average (13.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 601816's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

601816 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.5x
Fair PE Ratio25.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 601816 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 601816 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥6.06
CN¥6.46
+6.5%
6.4%CN¥7.00CN¥5.80n/a11
Dec ’25CN¥5.73
CN¥6.40
+11.7%
6.1%CN¥7.00CN¥5.80n/a11
Nov ’25CN¥5.54
CN¥6.43
+16.0%
6.4%CN¥7.00CN¥5.80n/a11
Oct ’25CN¥6.04
CN¥6.52
+7.9%
7.8%CN¥7.44CN¥5.80n/a11
Sep ’25CN¥5.43
CN¥6.67
+22.9%
8.3%CN¥7.44CN¥5.87n/a11
Aug ’25CN¥5.85
CN¥6.63
+13.3%
7.6%CN¥7.40CN¥5.87n/a11
Jul ’25CN¥5.42
CN¥6.63
+22.3%
7.4%CN¥7.40CN¥5.87n/a10
Jun ’25CN¥5.06
CN¥6.63
+31.0%
7.4%CN¥7.40CN¥5.87n/a10
May ’25CN¥5.09
CN¥6.70
+31.7%
7.5%CN¥7.50CN¥6.10n/a9
Apr ’25CN¥5.07
CN¥6.74
+33.0%
6.6%CN¥7.50CN¥6.14n/a10
Mar ’25CN¥5.00
CN¥6.74
+34.9%
6.6%CN¥7.50CN¥6.14n/a10
Feb ’25CN¥4.93
CN¥6.67
+35.4%
8.4%CN¥7.50CN¥5.50n/a10
Jan ’25CN¥4.92
CN¥6.66
+35.4%
8.1%CN¥7.30CN¥5.50n/a10
Dec ’24CN¥5.07
CN¥6.66
+31.4%
8.1%CN¥7.30CN¥5.50CN¥5.7310
Nov ’24CN¥4.97
CN¥6.66
+34.1%
8.1%CN¥7.30CN¥5.50CN¥5.5410
Oct ’24CN¥5.13
CN¥6.88
+34.1%
8.7%CN¥7.75CN¥5.50CN¥6.0411
Sep ’24CN¥5.14
CN¥7.03
+36.8%
9.7%CN¥8.00CN¥5.50CN¥5.4311
Aug ’24CN¥5.53
CN¥7.00
+26.5%
9.6%CN¥8.00CN¥5.50CN¥5.8512
Jul ’24CN¥5.26
CN¥7.00
+33.1%
9.5%CN¥8.00CN¥5.50CN¥5.4211
Jun ’24CN¥5.47
CN¥6.87
+25.6%
10.6%CN¥8.00CN¥5.50CN¥5.0611
May ’24CN¥5.43
CN¥6.27
+15.4%
11.6%CN¥7.75CN¥5.39CN¥5.0911
Apr ’24CN¥5.22
CN¥6.08
+16.5%
9.6%CN¥7.05CN¥5.39CN¥5.0711
Mar ’24CN¥5.24
CN¥5.88
+12.1%
9.1%CN¥7.00CN¥5.30CN¥5.0010
Feb ’24CN¥4.92
CN¥5.63
+14.3%
13.0%CN¥7.00CN¥4.00CN¥4.9310
Jan ’24CN¥4.92
CN¥5.49
+11.7%
12.5%CN¥6.90CN¥4.00CN¥4.9210
Dec ’23CN¥4.87
CN¥5.57
+14.5%
12.7%CN¥6.90CN¥4.00CN¥5.0710

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 15:43
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd. is covered by 25 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Nathan GeeBofA Global Research
Hongwei HuangChasing Securities
Xin YangChina International Capital Corporation Limited