Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 04
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 27% to CN¥9.79. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥12.31, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 6.6% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: CN¥0.94 loss per share (down from CN¥0.34 profit in FY 2024). Revenue: CN¥1.19b (down 18% from FY 2024). Net loss: CN¥429.7m (down 371% from profit in FY 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.0% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 56 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Apr 29
Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 22, 2026 Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 22, 2026, at 15:30 China Standard Time. Location: Building 1, No. 6, Libin Road, Songshan Lake Park, Dongguan, Guangdong China Announcement • Mar 31
Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 29, 2026 Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Apr 29, 2026 Announcement • Feb 03
Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd. Announces Directorate Appointments Great River Smarter held its 2nd Extraordinary General Meeting of 2026 on January 30, 2026, approved appointment of Wang Qiang as independent director and Rui Bin as independent director. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 30
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 7.0% to CN¥11.77. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥9.65, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Announcement • Dec 31
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Apr 29, 2026 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Apr 29, 2026 Board Change • Dec 12
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Director Rongwu Zhang was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 14
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.8% to CN¥11.24. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥9.34, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: CN¥0.042 loss per share (vs CN¥0.081 profit in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: CN¥0.042 loss per share (down from CN¥0.081 profit in 3Q 2024). Revenue: CN¥285.5m (down 19% from 3Q 2024). Net loss: CN¥25.9m (down 167% from profit in 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.5% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 41% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 18% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Sep 30
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 31, 2025 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Oct 31, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Sep 12
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 21% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥1.51b to CN¥1.20b. EPS estimate fell from CN¥0.38 to CN¥0.07 per share. Net income forecast to grow 732% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in China. Consensus price target of CN¥9.70 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 5.9% to CN¥11.04 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 04
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.2% to CN¥10.56. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥13.49, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 21% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 118% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Jul 02
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Aug 29, 2025 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Aug 29, 2025 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 20
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to CN¥11.91, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 28x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Infrastructure industry in China. Total loss to shareholders of 39% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CN¥13.36 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 05
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 4.1% to CN¥10.56. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥13.25, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 21% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 118% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 20
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 4.7% to CN¥10.12. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥12.76, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 21% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 118% in the next 2 years. New Risk • May 16
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 8.6% Last year net profit margin: 19% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.9x net interest cover). Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (114% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (8.6% net profit margin). Announcement • May 13
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. Approves Dividend for the Year 2024 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. at the AGM held on May 12, 2025 approved final Cash dividend/10 shares (tax included) of CNY 2.00000000 for the year 2024. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.081 (vs CN¥0.18 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.081 (down from CN¥0.18 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥351.3m (down 9.2% from 3Q 2023). Net income: CN¥38.6m (down 52% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 11% (down from 21% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.1% p.a. on average during the next 4 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 20% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 28
Now 25% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 8.7% to CN¥9.13. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥12.11, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Revenue is forecast to grow by 34% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 68% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Apr 28
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 20, 2025 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 20, 2025, at 15:30 China Standard Time. Location: 1F, Building 1, No. 6, Libin Road, Songshan Lake Park, Dongguan, Guangdong China Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 07
Now 25% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.8% to CN¥9.92. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥13.17, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Revenue is forecast to grow by 34% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 68% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Mar 31
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 28, 2025 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Apr 28, 2025 Announcement • Dec 31
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Apr 28, 2025 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Apr 28, 2025 Announcement • Nov 16
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. Approves Cash Dividend for the Third Quarter 2024 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. at its EGM held on November 14, 2024 approved cash dividend of CNY 1.00 per 10 shares (tax included) for the third quarter 2024. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 14
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast increased from CN¥1.52b to CN¥1.53b. EPS estimate fell from CN¥0.57 to CN¥0.51 per share. Net income forecast to grow 31% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in China. Consensus price target of CN¥11.90 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at CN¥12.12 over the past week. Announcement • Oct 30
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. Proposes Profit Distribution for the Third Quarter of 2024 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced on 29 October 2024 the profit distribution proposal for the third quarter of 2024 as follows: Cash dividend/10 shares (tax included): CNY 1.00000000. Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.081 (vs CN¥0.18 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.081 (down from CN¥0.18 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥351.3m (down 9.2% from 3Q 2023). Net income: CN¥38.6m (down 52% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 11% (down from 21% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 20% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • Sep 30
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 29, 2024 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Oct 29, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to CN¥10.98, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Infrastructure industry in China. Total loss to shareholders of 37% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CN¥11.36 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 06
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥1.81b to CN¥1.52b. EPS estimate fell from CN¥0.89 to CN¥0.785 per share. Net income forecast to grow 31% next year vs 8.0% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in China. Consensus price target down from CN¥16.70 to CN¥11.90. Share price fell 4.6% to CN¥10.34 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 31
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.16 (vs CN¥0.20 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.16 (down from CN¥0.20 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥356.3m (down 10% from 2Q 2023). Net income: CN¥72.6m (down 20% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 20% (down from 23% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.8% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat but the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 19
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 30% to CN¥10.48. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥13.15, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 16% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Revenue is forecast to grow by 52% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 68% in the next 2 years. Declared Dividend • Jul 05
Dividend reduced to CN¥0.25 Dividend of CN¥0.25 is 17% lower than last year. Ex-date: 9th July 2024 Payment date: 9th July 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.1%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (40% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (16% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 8.7% per year over the past 5 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 66% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Jul 03
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. Announces Final Profit Distribution Plan to Be Implemented on A Shares for the Year 2023, Payable on 09 July 2024 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced final profit distribution plan to be implemented on A shares as cash dividend per ten shares (tax included) of CNY 2.50000000 for the year 2023, payable on 09 July 2024. Record date is 08 July 2024. Ex-date is 09 July 2024. Board Change • Jul 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 6 experienced directors. 4 highly experienced directors. Deputy GM & Non-Independent Director Yi Gan was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Announcement • Jun 29
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 31, 2024 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Aug 31, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 27
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 14% to CN¥15.09. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥12.34, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 16% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Revenue is forecast to grow by 52% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 76% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 09
Now 22% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at CN¥15.38. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥12.56, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 16% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Revenue is forecast to grow by 52% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 76% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Apr 28
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.13 (vs CN¥0.15 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.13 (down from CN¥0.15 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥379.9m (up 1.1% from 1Q 2023). Net income: CN¥60.0m (down 13% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 16% (down from 18% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.6% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat but the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased by 14% to CN¥19.94 Down from CN¥23.24, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 39% above last closing price of CN¥14.37. Stock is down 33% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.78 for next year compared to CN¥0.65 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥1.97b to CN¥1.81b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥0.945 per share to CN¥0.78 per share. Net income forecast to grow 22% next year vs 8.0% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in China. Consensus price target down from CN¥23.24 to CN¥19.94. Share price rose 2.1% to CN¥14.37 over the past week. Announcement • Apr 26
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 16, 2024 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 16, 2024, at 15:30 China Standard Time. Location: 1F, Building 1, No. 6, Libin Road, Songshan Lake Park, Dongguan, Guangdong China Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 17
Now 23% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 20% to CN¥14.69. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥11.92, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 18% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Revenue is forecast to grow by 62% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 87% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Apr 14
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.65 (up from CN¥0.50 in FY 2022). Revenue: CN¥1.55b (up 22% from FY 2022). Net income: CN¥295.7m (up 32% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 19% (up from 18% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 9.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 24% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.5% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year. Announcement • Mar 30
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 27, 2024 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Apr 27, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to CN¥13.83, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Infrastructure industry in China. Total loss to shareholders of 21% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CN¥10.82 per share. Announcement • Dec 29
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Apr 25, 2024 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Apr 25, 2024 Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.18 (vs CN¥0.13 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.18 (up from CN¥0.13 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: CN¥386.9m (up 17% from 3Q 2022). Net income: CN¥80.6m (up 34% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 21% (up from 18% in 3Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 25% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 3% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 2% per year. Announcement • Sep 30
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 28, 2023 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results at 3:00 PM, China Standard Time on Oct 28, 2023 Reported Earnings • Aug 29
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.20 (vs CN¥0.16 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.20 (up from CN¥0.16 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: CN¥397.7m (up 18% from 2Q 2022). Net income: CN¥91.1m (up 30% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 23% (up from 21% in 2Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 19
Upcoming dividend of CN¥0.30 per share at 1.4% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 26 June 2023. Payment date: 26 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 57% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.4%. Lower than top quartile of Chinese dividend payers (2.0%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.2%). Announcement • May 25
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. Approves Cash Dividend for 2022 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. at its Annual General Meeting held on 22 May 2023 approved cash dividend of CNY 3.00000000 per 10 shares (tax included) for 2022. Reported Earnings • Apr 16
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.50 (vs CN¥0.61 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.50 (down from CN¥0.61 in FY 2021). Revenue: CN¥1.26b (up 16% from FY 2021). Net income: CN¥224.0m (down 18% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 18% (down from 25% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 22% per year. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target increased to CN¥24.25 Up from CN¥19.95, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 21% above last closing price of CN¥20.08. Stock is down 12% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.63 for next year compared to CN¥0.61 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 8 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 8 new directors. 2 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Supervisor Xiao Zhong is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.13 (vs CN¥0.15 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.13 (down from CN¥0.15 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥332.0m (up 25% from 3Q 2021). Net income: CN¥60.1m (down 11% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 18% (down from 25% in 3Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 22% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 23% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 18% per year. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 27% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥1.36b to CN¥1.28b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥0.97 per share to CN¥0.71 per share. Net income forecast to grow 46% next year vs 6.9% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in China. Consensus price target of CN¥24.25 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at CN¥22.87 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 29
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.16 (vs CN¥0.17 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.16 (down from CN¥0.17 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥335.8m (up 21% from 2Q 2021). Net income: CN¥70.2m (down 9.1% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 21% (down from 28% in 2Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 27%, compared to a 18% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 27% per year. Announcement • Jun 24
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002930) acquired Jiahui Logistics (Cangzhou) Co., Ltd. Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002930) acquired Jiahui Logistics (Cangzhou) Co., Ltd. on June 22, 2022.
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002930) completed the acquisition of Jiahui Logistics (Cangzhou) Co., Ltd. on June 22, 2022. Announcement • Jun 21
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. Announces Final Profit Distribution Plan to Be Implemented on A Shares for the Year 2021, Payable on 27 June 2022 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced final profit distribution plan to be implemented on A shares as cash dividend per ten shares (tax included) of CNY 3.00000000 for the year 2021, payable on 27 June 2022. Record date: 24 June 2022. Ex-date: 27 June 2022. Net cash dividend per ten shares after tax: CNY 2.70000000 (CNY 3.00000000 – CNY 0.30000000). Reported Earnings • Apr 28
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.12 (down from CN¥0.15 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥269.5m (up 4.3% from 1Q 2021). Net income: CN¥54.2m (down 18% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 20% (down from 26% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 16%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 28%, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 30% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to CN¥25.00 Up from CN¥21.72, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 43% above last closing price of CN¥17.50. Stock is up 1.8% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.91 for next year compared to CN¥0.58 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 8 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 8 new directors. 1 experienced director. No highly experienced directors. Supervisor Xiao Zhong is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Reported Earnings • Apr 13
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: CN¥0.58 (up from CN¥0.51 in FY 2020). Revenue: CN¥1.09b (up 28% from FY 2020). Net income: CN¥258.1m (up 13% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 24% (down from 27% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 14%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 24%, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 33% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Mar 04
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 12%. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥27.81, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 39% per annum over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 35% per annum over the last 3 years. Price Target Changed • Feb 21
Price target increased to CN¥25.00 Up from CN¥21.72, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 15% above last closing price of CN¥21.80. Stock is up 12% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.68 for next year compared to CN¥0.51 last year. Buying Opportunity • Jan 20
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 5.0%. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥27.54, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 39% per annum over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 35% per annum over the last 3 years. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.15 (vs CN¥0.17 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a poor third quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues were flat. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥266.4m (flat on 3Q 2020). Net income: CN¥67.4m (down 10% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 25% (down from 28% in 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 35% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 21
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 19% share price gain to CN¥22.82, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 29x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Infrastructure industry in China. Total returns to shareholders of 63% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CN¥36.10 per share. Announcement • Sep 06
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that it has received funding from Guangdong Great River Group Co., Ltd. Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that it has received a round of funding on September 4, 2021. The transaction included participation from returning investor Guangdong Great River Group Co., Ltd. Reported Earnings • Aug 18
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.17 (vs CN¥0.12 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a solid second quarter result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were flat. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥277.6m (up 40% from 2Q 2020). Net income: CN¥77.3m (up 42% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 28% (in line with 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 33% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • May 19
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. Approves Final Cash Dividend for the Year 2020 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced at the AGM held on May 14, 2021 that the company approved final profit distribution of CNY 3.00000000 per 10 shares (tax included) for 2020. Reported Earnings • Apr 25
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.51 (vs CN¥0.33 in FY 2019) The company reported a solid full year result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: CN¥848.3m (up 75% from FY 2019). Net income: CN¥227.7m (up 56% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 27% (down from 30% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Mar 09
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Results on Apr 23, 2021 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2020 results on Apr 23, 2021 Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 02
New 90-day low: CN¥17.81 The company is down 18% from its price of CN¥21.70 on 02 December 2020. The Chinese market is up 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Infrastructure industry, which is down 8.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is CN¥2.24 per share. Price Target Changed • Feb 09
Price target raised to CN¥23.50 Up from CN¥21.72, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. The new target price is 23% above the current share price of CN¥19.14. As of last close, the stock is up 94% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Feb 05
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.52 (vs CN¥0.33 in FY 2019) The company reported a solid full year result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: CN¥849.5m (up 75% from FY 2019). Net income: CN¥231.8m (up 59% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 27% (down from 30% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 05
Revenue beats expectations, earnings disappoint Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 4.6%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 25%, compared to a 27% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in China. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 22
New 90-day low: CN¥18.13 The company is down 11% from its price of CN¥20.35 on 23 October 2020. The Chinese market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Infrastructure industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is CN¥2.29 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 06
New 90-day low: CN¥18.94 The company is down 2.0% from its price of CN¥19.24 on 30 September 2020. The Chinese market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Infrastructure industry, which is up 8.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is CN¥2.27 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 19
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to CN¥22.90, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 54.3x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 47x. This compares to an average P/E of 20x in the Infrastructure industry in China. Total returns to shareholders over the past year are 103%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 19
New 90-day high: CN¥22.90 The company is up 11% from its price of CN¥20.66 on 21 August 2020. The Chinese market is down 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Infrastructure industry, which is up 2.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is CN¥2.21 per share. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of CN¥189.5m, up 32% from the prior year. Total revenue was CN¥723.3m over the last 12 months, up 55% from the prior year. Announcement • Oct 20
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2020 Results on Oct 28, 2020 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2020 results on Oct 28, 2020 Announcement • Aug 11
Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2020 Results on Aug 27, 2020 Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2020 results on Aug 27, 2020 
