ValueHD Corporation's (SZSE:301318) Popularity With Investors Under Threat As Stock Sinks 30%

ValueHD Corporation (SZSE:301318) shares have retraced a considerable 30% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. Longer-term shareholders will rue the drop in the share price, since it's now virtually flat for the year after a promising few quarters.

Although its price has dipped substantially, ValueHD may still be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 40.2x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 29x and even P/E's lower than 18x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at ValueHD over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for ValueHD

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on ValueHD will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Enough Growth For ValueHD?

ValueHD's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 44%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 54% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 36% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that ValueHD is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

There's still some solid strength behind ValueHD's P/E, if not its share price lately. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of ValueHD revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You need to take note of risks, for example - ValueHD has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

You might be able to find a better investment than ValueHD. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.