What Shanghai Smart Control Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:001266) 27% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Shanghai Smart Control Co., Ltd. (SZSE:001266) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 27% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Notwithstanding the latest gain, the annual share price return of 2.6% isn't as impressive.

Following the firm bounce in price, Shanghai Smart Control's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 7.1x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to other companies in the Electronic industry in China, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios below 4x and even P/S below 2x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Shanghai Smart Control

How Shanghai Smart Control Has Been Performing

The recent revenue growth at Shanghai Smart Control would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this good revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Shanghai Smart Control will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

Shanghai Smart Control's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 4.2%. Although, the latest three year period in total hasn't been as good as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 25% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this information, we find it concerning that Shanghai Smart Control is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Shanghai Smart Control's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

The fact that Shanghai Smart Control currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these the share price as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Shanghai Smart Control (at least 2 which can't be ignored), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If you're unsure about the strength of Shanghai Smart Control's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.