What Beijing Forever Technology Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:300365) 35% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Beijing Forever Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300365) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 35% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 31% over that time.

Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Beijing Forever Technology's P/S ratio of 5.3x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Software industry in China is also close to 5.2x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

View our latest analysis for Beijing Forever Technology

What Does Beijing Forever Technology's Recent Performance Look Like?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Beijing Forever Technology over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Beijing Forever Technology's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Beijing Forever Technology's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 22% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 36% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 33% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Beijing Forever Technology's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

What Does Beijing Forever Technology's P/S Mean For Investors?

Beijing Forever Technology appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We find it unexpected that Beijing Forever Technology trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Beijing Forever Technology you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.