What Great Chinasoft Technology Co.,Ltd.'s (SZSE:002453) 29% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Those holding Great Chinasoft Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002453) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 29% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. But the last month did very little to improve the 65% share price decline over the last year.

After such a large jump in price, Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 6.4x, since almost half of all companies in the Software in China have P/S ratios under 4.4x and even P/S lower than 2x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

See our latest analysis for Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd

How Has Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 52% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 84% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 26% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd (1 is significant) you should be aware of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.