Suzhou Convert Semiconductor CO., LTD.'s (SHSE:688693) Shares Climb 25% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Suzhou Convert Semiconductor CO., LTD. (SHSE:688693) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 25% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

Since its price has surged higher, Suzhou Convert Semiconductor's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 10.7x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to other companies in the Semiconductor industry in China, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios below 6.6x and even P/S below 3x are quite common. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for Suzhou Convert Semiconductor

How Suzhou Convert Semiconductor Has Been Performing

For example, consider that Suzhou Convert Semiconductor's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Suzhou Convert Semiconductor, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Suzhou Convert Semiconductor's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 9.2%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow revenue by an impressive 56% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 35% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Suzhou Convert Semiconductor's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in Suzhou Convert Semiconductor have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Suzhou Convert Semiconductor revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Suzhou Convert Semiconductor, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Suzhou Convert Semiconductor, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.