Cosmos Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002133) Held Back By Insufficient Growth Even After Shares Climb 31%

Cosmos Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002133) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 31% after a shaky period beforehand. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 24% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, Cosmos Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the Real Estate industry in China, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 1.8x and even P/S above 4x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

Check out our latest analysis for Cosmos Group

How Has Cosmos Group Performed Recently?

Revenue has risen at a steady rate over the last year for Cosmos Group, which is generally not a bad outcome. Perhaps the market believes the recent revenue performance might fall short of industry figures in the near future, leading to a reduced P/S. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders may have reason to be optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Cosmos Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Cosmos Group would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 4.4% last year. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with revenue shrinking 2.6% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 11% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we understand why Cosmos Group's P/S is lower than most of its industry peers. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent revenue trends are already weighing down the shares.

The Bottom Line On Cosmos Group's P/S

Cosmos Group's stock price has surged recently, but its but its P/S still remains modest. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

It's no surprise that Cosmos Group maintains its low P/S off the back of its sliding revenue over the medium-term. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Cosmos Group you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.