China Vanke Co., Ltd.

SZSE:000002 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥98.0b

China Vanke Valuation

Is 000002 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 000002 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 000002 (CN¥8.68) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥0.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 000002 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 000002?

Key metric: As 000002 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 000002. This is calculated by dividing 000002's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 000002's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
SalesCN¥395.33b
Market CapCN¥98.00b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 000002's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 000002 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.9x
001979 China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings
0.6x0.2%CN¥99.9b
600048 Poly Developments and Holdings Group
0.4x-2.6%CN¥120.4b
600177 Youngor Fashion
2.4x-11.2%CN¥35.6b
600383 Gemdale
0.3x-23.1%CN¥24.3b
000002 China Vanke
0.3x-10.4%CN¥98.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 000002 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 000002's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Real Estate Industry?

34 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.4x1.2%
000002 China Vanke
 0.3x-10.4%US$13.53b
600048 Poly Developments and Holdings Group
0.4x-2.6%US$16.48b
001979 China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings
0.6x0.2%US$13.79b
000002 0.3xIndustry Avg. 2.4xNo. of Companies34PS02.44.87.29.612+
34 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.4x38.3%
000002 China Vanke
 0.3x93.1%US$13.53b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 000002 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the CN Real Estate industry average (2.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 000002's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

000002 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 000002 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 000002 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥8.68
CN¥7.28
-16.1%
31.9%CN¥11.94CN¥4.00n/a17
Nov ’25CN¥9.11
CN¥7.28
-20.1%
31.9%CN¥11.94CN¥4.00n/a17
Oct ’25CN¥9.72
CN¥6.76
-30.4%
32.3%CN¥11.80CN¥3.20n/a17
Sep ’25CN¥6.76
CN¥7.44
+10.1%
30.6%CN¥11.80CN¥3.20n/a16
Aug ’25CN¥6.90
CN¥7.57
+9.8%
30.9%CN¥11.80CN¥3.20n/a16
Jul ’25CN¥7.29
CN¥8.52
+16.8%
30.7%CN¥14.00CN¥3.20n/a17
Jun ’25CN¥8.25
CN¥9.00
+9.1%
36.0%CN¥17.31CN¥3.20n/a18
May ’25CN¥7.41
CN¥8.41
+13.5%
35.5%CN¥17.31CN¥3.20n/a18
Apr ’25CN¥8.98
CN¥10.16
+13.1%
27.3%CN¥17.31CN¥6.00n/a18
Mar ’25CN¥9.89
CN¥12.81
+29.6%
25.5%CN¥21.00CN¥7.17n/a18
Feb ’25CN¥9.44
CN¥13.27
+40.6%
24.6%CN¥21.00CN¥8.10n/a18
Jan ’25CN¥10.46
CN¥14.10
+34.8%
20.9%CN¥21.00CN¥8.10n/a18
Dec ’24CN¥11.40
CN¥14.81
+29.9%
22.7%CN¥21.00CN¥8.10n/a19
Nov ’24CN¥11.34
CN¥14.81
+30.6%
22.7%CN¥21.00CN¥8.10CN¥9.1119
Oct ’24CN¥13.08
CN¥15.59
+19.2%
21.8%CN¥21.00CN¥8.10CN¥9.7218
Sep ’24CN¥14.05
CN¥16.94
+20.6%
27.0%CN¥29.40CN¥8.10CN¥6.7619
Aug ’24CN¥15.09
CN¥17.79
+17.9%
25.9%CN¥29.40CN¥10.20CN¥6.9018
Jul ’24CN¥14.02
CN¥18.15
+29.4%
24.6%CN¥29.40CN¥10.20CN¥7.2918
Jun ’24CN¥14.00
CN¥18.91
+35.0%
27.6%CN¥31.36CN¥10.20CN¥8.2519
May ’24CN¥15.14
CN¥18.66
+23.2%
28.4%CN¥31.36CN¥10.20CN¥7.4118
Apr ’24CN¥15.24
CN¥20.94
+37.4%
19.6%CN¥31.36CN¥15.10CN¥8.9817
Mar ’24CN¥17.22
CN¥21.57
+25.3%
19.3%CN¥31.36CN¥15.10CN¥9.8918
Feb ’24CN¥18.19
CN¥21.55
+18.5%
19.2%CN¥31.36CN¥15.10CN¥9.4418
Jan ’24CN¥18.20
CN¥21.23
+16.6%
20.0%CN¥31.36CN¥15.10CN¥10.4618
Dec ’23CN¥19.00
CN¥20.60
+8.4%
21.7%CN¥31.36CN¥14.25CN¥11.4017
Nov ’23CN¥13.86
CN¥21.18
+52.8%
22.1%CN¥31.36CN¥13.40CN¥11.3418

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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