Gemdale Corporation (SHSE:600383) Surges 50% Yet Its Low P/S Is No Reason For Excitement

Gemdale Corporation (SHSE:600383) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 50% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 37% over that time.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, Gemdale may still be sending buy signals at present with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x, considering almost half of all companies in the Real Estate industry in China have P/S ratios greater than 2.1x and even P/S higher than 5x aren't out of the ordinary. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

View our latest analysis for Gemdale

How Gemdale Has Been Performing

While the industry has experienced revenue growth lately, Gemdale's revenue has gone into reverse gear, which is not great. The P/S ratio is probably low because investors think this poor revenue performance isn't going to get any better. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Gemdale.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

Gemdale's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 25%. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 8.4% overall rise in revenue. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 14% as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the broader industry is forecast to expand by 5.5%, which paints a poor picture.

In light of this, it's understandable that Gemdale's P/S would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.

What We Can Learn From Gemdale's P/S?

Gemdale's stock price has surged recently, but its but its P/S still remains modest. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

It's clear to see that Gemdale maintains its low P/S on the weakness of its forecast for sliding revenue, as expected. As other companies in the industry are forecasting revenue growth, Gemdale's poor outlook justifies its low P/S ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Gemdale you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.