Gemdale Corporation Just Missed EPS By 86%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Gemdale Corporation (SHSE:600383) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of CN¥98b missed by 11%, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.20 fell short of forecasts by 86%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Gemdale

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the nine analysts covering Gemdale, is for revenues of CN¥95.7b in 2024. This implies a small 2.4% reduction in Gemdale's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 568% to CN¥1.31. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥97.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.31 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CN¥4.85. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Gemdale analyst has a price target of CN¥9.54 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥3.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.4% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.0% per year. It's pretty clear that Gemdale's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥4.85, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Gemdale analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Gemdale (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.