Hualan Biological Vaccine Inc. Just Missed Revenue By 9.2%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Hualan Biological Vaccine Inc. (SZSE:301207), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its full-year results last week. Hualan Biological Vaccine missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of CN¥2.4b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.43, falling short by 9.2% and 4.2% respectively. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Hualan Biological Vaccine

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Hualan Biological Vaccine are now predicting revenues of CN¥2.94b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 18% to CN¥1.69. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥3.32b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.87 in 2024. It looks like sentiment has fallen somewhat in the aftermath of these results, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a small dip in earnings per share numbers as well.

The consensus price target fell 12% to CN¥33.20, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Hualan Biological Vaccine analyst has a price target of CN¥41.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥28.60. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hualan Biological Vaccine's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Hualan Biological Vaccine's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 22% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 24% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Hualan Biological Vaccine is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Hualan Biological Vaccine's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hualan Biological Vaccine going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Hualan Biological Vaccine that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.