Earnings Not Telling The Story For Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd (SZSE:002198)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 73.7x Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd (SZSE:002198) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 30x and even P/E's lower than 18x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 144%. Although, its longer-term performance hasn't been as strong with three-year EPS growth being relatively non-existent overall. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 41% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

You might be able to find a better investment than Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.