Malion New Materials Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:300586) 29% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Malion New Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300586) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone. Looking further back, the 17% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Since its price has surged higher, you could be forgiven for thinking Malion New Materials is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 4.1x, considering almost half the companies in China's Chemicals industry have P/S ratios below 2.5x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

Check out our latest analysis for Malion New Materials

How Malion New Materials Has Been Performing

For instance, Malion New Materials' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Malion New Materials' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Malion New Materials' Revenue Growth Trending?

Malion New Materials' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 14%. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 6.1% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 25% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Malion New Materials' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Malion New Materials shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

The fact that Malion New Materials currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Malion New Materials that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.