Shaky Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Ganfeng Lithium Group (SZSE:002460)

The market shrugged off Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002460) weak earnings report. While shares were up, we believe there are some factors in the earnings report that might cause investors some concerns.

View our latest analysis for Ganfeng Lithium Group

Zooming In On Ganfeng Lithium Group's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to December 2023, Ganfeng Lithium Group recorded an accrual ratio of 0.23. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥8.5b, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥4.95b. We saw that FCF was CN¥7.5b a year ago though, so Ganfeng Lithium Group has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Ganfeng Lithium Group's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥2.2b in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Ganfeng Lithium Group had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to December 2023. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

Our Take On Ganfeng Lithium Group's Profit Performance

Summing up, Ganfeng Lithium Group received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Ganfeng Lithium Group's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. To help with this, we've discovered 3 warning signs (1 is significant!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Ganfeng Lithium Group.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.