Stock Analysis

These 4 Measures Indicate That North Copper (SZSE:000737) Is Using Debt Extensively

SZSE:000737
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David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, North Copper Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000737) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

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How Much Debt Does North Copper Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 North Copper had debt of CN¥7.98b, up from CN¥4.26b in one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥1.46b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥6.52b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:000737 Debt to Equity History May 24th 2024

How Strong Is North Copper's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that North Copper had liabilities of CN¥4.26b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥6.69b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.46b and CN¥119.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥9.38b.

North Copper has a market capitalization of CN¥20.2b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

North Copper's debt is 4.9 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 6.0 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Importantly, North Copper grew its EBIT by 30% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since North Copper will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, North Copper burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

Our View

Neither North Copper's ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its EBIT growth rate tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think North Copper's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that North Copper is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 3 of those are concerning...

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.