Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:603020) Shares

It's not a stretch to say that Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:603020) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 31.8x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in China, where the median P/E ratio is around 30x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

For example, consider that Apple Flavor & Fragrance GroupLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Apple Flavor & Fragrance GroupLtd

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Apple Flavor & Fragrance GroupLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Apple Flavor & Fragrance GroupLtd's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 7.3%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 65% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 36% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Apple Flavor & Fragrance GroupLtd's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Apple Flavor & Fragrance GroupLtd currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Apple Flavor & Fragrance GroupLtd (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Apple Flavor & Fragrance GroupLtd, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.