Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601233) came out with its first-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenue of CN¥21b surpassed estimates by 4.7%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 45% below expectations at CN¥0.24 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Tongkun Group after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Tongkun Group

Taking into account the latest results, Tongkun Group's 13 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be CN¥87.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 89% to CN¥1.48. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥91.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.58 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥16.01 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Tongkun Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥19.20 and the most bearish at CN¥11.50 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.009% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 16% per year. It's pretty clear that Tongkun Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Tongkun Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Tongkun Group (including 1 which is potentially serious) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.