Yibin Paper Industry Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600793) Stock Rockets 76% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Despite an already strong run, Yibin Paper Industry Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600793) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 76% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 85% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies operating in China's Forestry industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2x, you may consider Yibin Paper Industry as a stock to potentially avoid with its 2.8x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

Check out our latest analysis for Yibin Paper Industry

How Yibin Paper Industry Has Been Performing

For example, consider that Yibin Paper Industry's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Yibin Paper Industry will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Yibin Paper Industry would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 15%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 41% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 16% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Yibin Paper Industry's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Yibin Paper Industry's P/S Mean For Investors?

Yibin Paper Industry's P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Yibin Paper Industry currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Yibin Paper Industry, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.