There's Reason For Concern Over Panda Dairy Corporation's (SZSE:300898) Massive 28% Price Jump

Those holding Panda Dairy Corporation (SZSE:300898) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 28% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 62% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Panda Dairy's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 37.9x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in China, where the median P/E ratio is around 38x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Panda Dairy has been doing quite well of late. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to deteriorate like the rest, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Panda Dairy

Keen to find out how analysts think Panda Dairy's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Panda Dairy's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 11% last year. Still, EPS has barely risen at all in aggregate from three years ago, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the lone analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 15% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 37% growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's curious that Panda Dairy's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What We Can Learn From Panda Dairy's P/E?

Panda Dairy appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump getting its P/E back in line with most other companies. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Panda Dairy's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Panda Dairy that you need to be mindful of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Panda Dairy. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.